الفهرس 
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Abstract
Some studies are carried out mainly for analyzing the measured data in the study domain (northern entrances of the Suez Canal, near to Port Said). Wave time series data from satellite altimeters measurements, which can be downloaded from the web sites www.waveclimate.com are used. Data of wave climate can be accessed for areas as small as 50 km squared via this system. The considered central location for the study area is (31 Deg., 10 Min. North and 32 Deg. , 20 Min. East). The total study domain equals 50 km length towards offshore and 25 km width alongshore. For the downloaded wave data, a statistical analysis is carried out to determine the representative offshore seasonal significant wave heights. Four seasons are taken into consideration, which are winter, spring, summer and autumn. Based on these analyses, the seasonal significant wave heights for years 2003 through 2005 are determined. Wave nearshore transformation is carried out by using the mathematical model SWAN. For the purpose of the statistical analysis, six representative zones around the northern approaches are selected to be taken into consideration for the study domain in the transition zone. The main statistical parameters for tendency and deviation and the representative occurrence probability density functions are determined for each zone. Occurrence uncertainty of significant wave heights in each zone are also carried out. The ranges of significant wave heights associated with minimum occurrence uncertainty are determined as well. The central values for these ranges are considered as liable representatives. An investigation for the parameter uncertainty of mean significant wave heights is carried out as well. Also, some statistical and uncertainty analysis are carried out mainly for analyzing the measured tide data in the study domain, near to Port Said. Tidal range data from XTide model predictions, which can be downloaded from the web sites as http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/, are used for years 2000 through 2006 with an interval of two years and the predictions for year 2010. Similar statistical analysis as in wave case are carried out to determine the representative tidal ranges. Same four seasons are taken into consideration to represent the whole year.
Besides, three bulk-type formulae, which are CERC (1984), Kamphuis (1991) and van Rijn (2006) for longshore transport evaluation have been applied to compute the longshore transport in the study area near Port Said. The used data are based on the available in literature. Via calibration for the calculated values with the reference figures and their results among themselves, the study comes up with correction parameters for both CERC (1984) and van Rijn (2006) formulae. This to ensure to give realistic calculations for the study area, which can be applied for many similar places on the Egyptian Mediterranean coast as well. Similar statistical and uncertainty analysis (as the case of waves) are carried out for longshore transport. In order to evaluate the liability of the average values from the three methodologies to represent the longshore sediment transport along the coast, predictions by using the neural tools (artificial neural networks) are carried out. This comes via prediction of the longshore transport quantities through studying the behavior of calculations based on the three methodologies as independent variables. The prediction is considered as a dependent variable on these three independent ones. After, calibration via comparisons between both the average calculated values and the neural predictions is carried out. In the calibration procedure, the predicted values with relative differences more than (15%) to be omitted.
In addition, Management of the environmental data is highly required. Via this research, an efficient tool is developed in order to manage such data. The developed tool consists of a database and a controlling program. This tool is able to manage the common measured environmental data related to siltation problems (tides, waves, currents, suspended load concentration, surface soil samples when compulsory and wind). It is also able to provide grouping environmental data availability (existence together). Besides, preliminary correlation analysis can be carried out by using this tool to determine the correlation among the available together data (with same measuring date and time). Besides, it provides the option of preliminary calculations for siltation in a certain location through the channel based on van Rijn (1987) approach. An application to the Suez Canal northern approaches siltation calculation in some representative sections is provided. The tool is quite handy and can be used by both scientists and engineers.
Besides, This research deals with the probabilistic assessment study of channel downstream slope erosion in the maritime environment. The simulation is carried out by using the variables processor probabilistic simulation model (VAP) based on Monte Carlo simulations technique. The influences of the number of samples on the simulation results and the number of simulations on failure probability are studied. Application of erosion volumes calculation on the downstream banks of Suez Canal eastern approach is also provided. In the study, the determined probability of failure for the limit state function of erosion factor made a good agreement with the probabilistic values obtained from both the deterministic probability density and survival functions. The cumulative hazard function gave a value as approximately a doubling value of the one of the determined hazard. These vales ensure the liability for the limit sate function of the erosion factor. Both the mean and standard deviation variations made a complete agreement with the variation behavior of the simulated probability of failure. The guiding determined regression models for the erosion volume empirical curves based on different conditions were determined. The effects of the side slope variation were recognized clearly by fixing the value of (ho) for each case. Increasing the submerged berm depth (ho) causes an inverse correlation with the erosion volume. This research provides a case study application for the approach channels and downstream slope erosion with certain boundary conditions. It can be also applied in a quite wide scale, based on the provided maritime channel/slope conditions for the studied case.
RESEARCH MAIN KEY WORDS
Egyptian northern coast, statistical analysis, regression models, wave altimeter data, SWAN model, Wave nearshore transformation, Probability density function (PDF), longshore transport evaluation, CERC formula (1984), Kamphuis formula (1991), van Rijn formula (2006), parameter uncertainty, bootstrap analysis, uncertainty in occurrence probability, bias in evaluations, maritime downstream slopes, approach channels, downstream erosion factor, probabilistic simulations, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic slope failure, sensitivity analysis, downstream erosion volumes, limit state functions