الفهرس يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
In the recent, the world has witnessed a series of political, economic, social changes in various aspects. Foreign trade is considered as one of the main pillars in the economies of the countries. However, exports are a main source for foreign currency in Egypt. Moreover, the exports of rice, potatoes, onion, orange, chamomile and geranium are of the most important agricultural exports. Thus, increasing the quantity and value of exports in general and agricultural exports in particular have a significant impact on the economic development. Therefore, maximizing the outcome of the State of agricultural exports is one of the important pillars of the focus of attention of planners of economic policy to attain economic and agricultural development.
In spite of the relatively high value of these crops comparing with other crops, its share in agricultural exports still relatively low, and its exports future is unclear regarding the unstable world flactuations. These conditions can not help in design and implement a suitable export policy, and this is the research problem.
The current study focused on the most important exportable crops i.e. rice, potatoes, onion, orange, chamomile and geranium through examining the following topics:
- A theoritical review on the most important global changes, which are expected to have an impact on the Egyptian agricultural exports, in addition to a review of the most important studies and research related to the current study.
- Studying the structure of the Egyptian foreign trade besides, the economic importance of the most important exportable crops.
- Studying the features of production and consumption of the crops of the study.
- Studying the geographical distribution of the crops of the study.
- Studying the best economic trend of some foreign markets of the crops of the study.
- Studying the competitive status of the crops of the study in the most important international markets.
- Studying the projected exports of the crops of the study.
However, the current study includes five chapters, in addition to two summaries in Arabic and in English. The main results of the current study are as follows:
- The value of total exports at current prices shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 14.3% of the average annual value of total exports.
- The value of total exports at real prices shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 15.5% of the average annual value of total exports.
- The value of total imports at current prices shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 9.3% of the average annual value of total imports.
- The value of total imports at real prices shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 9.6% of the average annual value of total imports.
- The value of agricultural exports at current prices shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 11.4% of the average annual value of agricultural exports.
- The value of agricultural exports at real prices shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 10.8% of the average annual value of agricultural exports.
- The value of agricultural imports at current prices shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 5.1% of the average annual value of agricultural imports. On the contrary, the value of agricultural imports at real prices doesn’t show a statistically significant increase in this sense.
- Rice, potatoes, onion, orange, chamomile and geranium contribute about 22.6%, 6.5%, 3.4% and 6.4%, 0.5%, 0.2% of the total value of agricultural exports during the period (2001-2005).
- The cultivated area by rice shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 1.9% of the average cultivated area of rice during the period of the study. However, the average productivity of rice shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 2.2% of the average productivity of rice during the period of the study. Nevertheless, rice production shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 3.8% of the average production of rice during the period of the study. Moreover, the national consumption of rice shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 3.0% of the average domestic consumption of rice during the period of the study.
- The cultivated area by potato shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 1.4% of the average cultivated area of potato during the period of the study. However, the average productivity of potato shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 1.7% of the average productivity of potato during the period of the study. Nevertheless, potato production shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 3.0% of the average production of potato during the period of the study. Moreover, the national consumption of potato shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 3.2% of the average domestic consumption of potato during the period of the study.
- The cultivated area by onion shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 5.8% of the average cultivated area of onion during the period of the study. However, the average productivity of onion shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 2.5% of the average productivity of onion during the period of the study. Nevertheless, onion production shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 3.7% of the average production of onion during the period of the study. Moreover, the national consumption of onion shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 3.6% of the average domestic consumption of onion during the period of the study.
- The cultivated area by orange shows a general trend towards statistically significant decrease by about 0.6% of the average cultivated area of orange during the period of the study. However, the average productivity of orange shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 0.8% of the average productivity of orange during the period of the study. Nevertheless, orange production shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 1.6% of the average production of orange during the period of the study. Moreover, the national consumption of orange shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 0.7% of the average domestic consumption of orange during the period of the study.
- The cultivated area by chamomile shows a general trend towards statistically significant decrease by about 0.12% of the average cultivated area of chamomile during the period of the study. However, the average productivity of chamomile shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 0.2% of the average productivity of chamomile during the period of the study. Nevertheless, chamomile production shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 0.14% of the average production of chamomile during the period of the study.
- The cultivated area by geranium shows a general trend towards statistically insignificant decrease by about 2.5% of the average cultivated area of geranium during the period of the study. However, the average productivity of geranium shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 7.3% of the average productivity of geranium during the period of the study. Nevertheless, geranium production shows a general trend towards statistically significant increase by about 5.0% of the average production of geranium during the period of the study.
- The total quantity of rice exports is distributed among 105 countries, with an annual average of about 672.9 thousand tons. However, the average price of rice exportation is estimated at about L.E. 1534.9 per ton. On the other hand, the total value of rice exports reaches about L.E. 1032.8 billion. Moreover, the Group of Arab States ranks first as the most important market reaching about 48.5% of the total rice exports during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the quantity of rice exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 26.4 and a higher value of about 36.4, which refers to the non-concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the value of rice exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 28.3 and a higher value of about 37.2, which refers to the non-concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The total quantity of potato exports is distributed among 52 countries, with an annual average of about 307.7 thousand tons. However, the average price of potato exportation is estimated at about L.E. 978.2 per ton. On the other hand, the total value of potato exports reaches about L.E. 301.1 million. Moreover, the Group of European States ranks first as the most important market reaching about 74.3% of the total potato exports during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the quantity of potato exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 39.6 and a higher value of about 45.6, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the value of potato exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 39.6 and a higher value of about 45.4, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The total quantity of onion exports is distributed among 69 countries, with an annual average of about 269.9 thousand tons. However, the average price of onion exportation is estimated at about L.E. 551.2 per ton. On the other hand, the total value of onion exports reaches about L.E. 148.8 million. Moreover, the Group of Arab States ranks first as the most important market reaching about 73.1% of the total onion exports during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the quantity of onion exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 52.6 and a higher value of about 67.0, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the value of onion exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 38.5 and a higher value of about 56.3, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The total quantity of orange exports is distributed among 84 countries, with an annual average of about 208.0 thousand tons. However, the average price of orange exportation is estimated at about L.E. 1383.8 per ton. On the other hand, the total value of orange exports reaches about L.E. 287.8 million. Moreover, the Group of European States ranks first as the most important market reaching about 40.5% of the total orange exports during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the quantity of orange exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 37.4 and a higher value of about 70.0, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the value of orange exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 32.0 and a higher value of about 64.4, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The total quantity of chamomile exports is distributed among 58 countries, with an annual average of about 2563.2 tons. However, the average price of chamomile exportation is estimated at about L.E. 8048.5 per ton. On the other hand, the total value of chamomile exports reaches about L.E. 20629.9 thousand. Moreover, the Group of European States ranks first as the most important market reaching about 78.9% of the total chamomile exports during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the quantity of chamomile exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 39.6 and a higher value of about 51.9, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the value of chamomile exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 40.5 and a higher value of about 50.0, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The total quantity of geranium exports is distributed among 36 countries, with an annual average of about 37.9 tons. However, the average price of geranium exportation is estimated at about L.E. 221159.2 per ton. On the other hand, the total value of geranium exports reaches about L.E. 8381.935 thousand. Moreover, the Group of European States ranks first as the most important market reaching about 79.4% of the total geranium exports during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the quantity of geranium exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 42.8 and a higher value of about 64.1, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The coefficient of geographical concentration of the value of geranium exports (Jenny-Hirschman) between a lower value of about 38.8 and a higher value of about 54.2, which refers to the concentration of exports in certain countries during the period (2001-2006).
- The maximum quantity of the proposed exports of rice indicates that the maximum quantity of proposed exportable rice would be exported to Syria, which amounted to about 399.1 thousand tons, representing about 47.8% of the total quantity of rice exports in 2006, followed by Russia, Turkey, Romania, reaching about 139.5, 75.9, 38.6 thousand tons respectively, and representing about 16.71%, 9.09% and 4.62% of the total quantity of rice exports in 2006 respectively and amounting to approximately L.E. 1667.2 million. However, the export surplus is estimated at L.E. 159.7 million, representing about 10.6% of the total the value of actual Egyptian rice exports in 2006.
- The maximum quantity of the proposed exports of potato indicates that the maximum quantity of proposed exportable potato would be exported to Italy, which amounted to about 77.65 thousand tons, representing about 21.58% of the total quantity of potato exports in 2006, followed by Greece, Germany, England, Russia and Netherlands, reaching about 62.54, 47.96, 38.25, 35.55, 35.40 thousand tons respectively, and representing about 17.38%, 13.33%, 10.63%, 9.88%, 9.84% of the total quantity of potato exports in 2006 respectively and amounting to approximately L.E. 397.8 million. However, the export surplus is estimated at L.E. 31.9 million, representing about 7.74% of the total the value of actual Egyptian potato exports in 2006.
- The maximum quantity of the proposed exports of onion indicates that the maximum quantity of proposed exportable onion would be exported to Saudi Arabia, which amounted to about 101 thousand tons, representing about 51.58% of the total quantity of onion exports in 2006, followed by Syria, England and Russia, reaching about 39.5, 26.2,7.7 thousand tons respectively, and representing about 20.17% 13.38%, 3.93% of the total quantity of onion exports in 2006 respectively and amounting to approximately L.E. 151.3 million. However, the export surplus is estimated at L.E. 21.1 million, representing about 16.2% of the total the value of actual Egyptian onion exports in 2006.
- The maximum quantity of the proposed exports of orange indicates that the maximum quantity of proposed exportable orange would be exported to Russia, which amounted to about 75 thousand tons, representing about 29.54% of the total quantity of orange exports in 2006, followed by Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Netherlands, England and Croatia, reaching about 39.4, 33.2, 31.7, 31, 19.6 thousand tons respectively, and representing about 15.52%, 13.08%, 12.49%, 12.21%, 7.72% of the total quantity of orange exports in 2006 respectively and amounting to approximately L.E. 448.2 million. However, the export surplus is estimated at L.E. 130.0 million, representing about 40.87% of the total the value of actual Egyptian orange exports in 2006.
- The maximum quantity of the proposed exports of chamomile indicates that the maximum quantity of proposed exportable chamomile would be exported to Germany, which amounted to about 1223.1 tons, representing about 49.29% of the total quantity of chamomile exports in 2006, followed by Spain, Netherlands, Italy and USA, reaching about 270.8, 253.4, 173, 168.7 thousand tons respectively, and representing about 10.91%, 10.21%, 6.97%, 6.8% of the total quantity of chamomile exports in 2006 respectively and amounting to approximately L.E. 25.86 million. However, the export surplus is estimated at L.E. 2.01 million, representing about 8.55% of the total the value of actual Egyptian chamomile exports in 2006.
- The maximum quantity of the proposed exports of geranium indicates that the maximum quantity of proposed exportable geranium would be exported to France, which amounted to about 9.45 tons, representing about 20.89% of the total quantity of geranium exports in 2006, followed by Switzerland, Singapore, Pakistan and China, reaching about 6.15, 5.60, 4.87, 3.50 tons respectively, and representing about 13.60%, 12.38%, 10.77%, 7.74% of the total quantity of geranium exports in 2006 respectively and amounting to approximately L.E. 12.285 million. However, the export surplus is estimated at L.E. 2.826 million, representing about 29.9% of the total the value of actual Egyptian geranium exports in 2006.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of rice exported from the competing countries i.e. Thailand, Spain and China to Libya leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian rice by about 0.101%, 0.0.776%, 0.563% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on rice leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian rice by about 0.770%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of rice exported from the competing countries i.e. Thailand, India and Pakistan to Syria leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian rice by about 0.445%, 0.306%, 0.327% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on rice leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian rice by about 0.851%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of rice exported from the competing countries i.e. USA, Australia and China to Turky leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian rice by about 0.721%, 0.594%, 0.244% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on rice leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian rice by about 0.690%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of rice exported from the competing countries i.e. India, China and Pakistan to Romania leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian rice by about 0.235%, 0.340%, 0.510% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on rice leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian rice by about 0.853%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of potato exported from the competing countries i.e. Netherlands, Italy and France to Germany leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian potato by about 1.664%, 1.,080%, 0.808% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on potato leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian potato by about 0.489%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of potato exported from the competing countries i.e. Netherlands, Germany and France to Italy leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian potato by about 1.967%, 2.866%, 3.335% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on potato leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian potato by about 0.019%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of potato exported from the competing countries i.e. Netherlands, Germany and France to Greece leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian potato by about 0.533%, 0.662%, 0.580% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on potato leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian potato by about 0.754%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of potato exported from the competing countries i.e. France, Netherlands and New Zealand to England leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian potato by about 0.938%, 0.783%, 0.990% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on potato leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian potato by about 0.638%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of onion exported from the competing countries i.e. India, Iran and Turkey to Kuwait leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian onion by about 0.699%, 0.638%, 0.926% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on onion leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian onion by about 0.772%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of onion exported from the competing countries i.e. Turkey, India and Iran to Saudi Arabia leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian onion by about 0.484%, 0.562%, 0.504% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on onion leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian onion by about 0.787%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of onion exported from the competing countries i.e. Netherlands, China and Turkey to Russia leads to a change in the demand for the Egyptian onion by about 1.474%, -0.598%, 1.515% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on onion leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian onion by about 0.531%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of onion exported from the competing countries i.e. Spain, South Africa and Morocco to England leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian onion by about 11.22%, 6.768%, 7.041% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on onion leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian onion by about 1.839%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of orange exported from the competing countries i.e. Turkey, South Africa and Lebanon to Saudi Arabia leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian orange by about 0.239%, 0.397%, 0.324% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on orange leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian orange by about 0.835%.
- An increase of about 1% in the prices of orange exported from the competing countries i.e. Turkey, South Africa and Morocco to Russia leads to an increase in the demand for the Egyptian orange by about 0.759%, -0.271%, 3.714% for these competing countries respectively. However, an increase of about 1% in the total real expenditure on orange leads to an increase in expenditure on the Egyptian orange by about 0.509%.
- The use of Box and Jenkins model shows a future decline in the value and quantity of rice exports by about 21.9% and 23.1% respectively, the reduction of the quantity of future exports of potatoes by about 38.3% besides the increase of its value by about 2.7%, the increase of the quantity of future exports of onions by about 15.2% besides the decline of its value by about 44.7%, the increase of the quantity of future exports of oranges by about 19.6% besides the decline of its value by 16.7%, the reduction of the quantity of future exports of chamomile by about 39.3% besides the increase of its value by about 39.7%, and the increase of the quantity of future exports of essential oils of geranium by about 126.7% besides the decline of its value by about 19.6% and these results are indicated for the pre-prediction period (1990-2006).