الفهرس 
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Abstract
I
SUMMARY
The agricultural nature of yemen is one of its hi_torical
sides.In fact, agricUlture was, and continues t~ be,
an important component of yemen’s economy.The agricUltural
sector is the field of work, and the source of earning
bread to the greater majority of the members of yemen’s
society. And on the one hand,all other economic activities
draw on the agricUltural sector. on the other hand, it is
one of the basic sources of the national income, and it
plays a chief role in the foreign trade.
Hence, it is natural for the Arab Republic of Yemen,
as a developing nation which attempts to get rid ot or to
overcome the backwardness problem and develop its economic
and social life to follow the style of planning to achieve
development, doubling its materialistic production, ana
consequently increasing the national income. Accordingly,
agriculture in yemen enjoys an outstanding position in the
process of planning. Moreover, the agricUltural sector 1_
the foremost one in the different development plans.
from 1973 until now the continous process of planning
in yemen fails to achieve its desirable objectives in the
agriCUltural sector. Therefore, the aim of this r•••arch
is stUdying the influences, and analysinq the result. ot
agricultural develop_nt plans and proqramaes within the
general framework of the economic plans. This is don. t~
evaluate the extent of success of the expert.ent of aqric-
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ultural planning in performing the expected tasks in the
light of the quantitative economic variables determined in
the plan. This enables those who plan through studying
these results and consquences, and making use of the experience
of the previous planning when designing the plans
of the future.
This thesis fall into an introduction, four basic
chapters and the conclusion. The firs~ chapter presents a
review or a survey to be used as a reference to the agricultural
economic planning. It also presents some previous
studies in both the areas of economic planning and agricultural
· planning in yemen, and in some Arabic countries
whose its national economy,and i~s agrialtural sector face
problem that are extremely similar to those found in yemen
The second chapter studies the factors that determine
the agricultural economic planning in yemen. The the.is
also seeks to enumerate the obstacles or the difficult!••
that hinder planning in the agricultural sector. It show.
that some of these difficulties are natural or phy.ical.
others are economic, technological. Political an4
organizational.
The third chapter presents a study of the chief landmarks
of the economic planning in the Arab RepUblic ot
yemen.This is done through knowing the implications of the
general framework i.e studying the plan in teras ot it.
”general aims,strateqi_, and quantitative at..srepresented
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in the estimations of the chief economic variables on the
level of the agricultural sector. This is done in both the
three years’ developing programe and in the first, ••oond,
and third five-year plans.
The plan, on determining the chief features ot th*
three years’ development programme that started in 1972/7)
and ended in 1975/76 shows that the plan depends on th.
national output as an indicator of development and detetmined
to this output a ratio ot annual development th,.t
amounts to 6\.
The plan supposes that the ratio of the total of the
local output is the same rateof the national output.Moreover
the plan did not indicate in the programme the oontributions
of the economic sector in producing the total
local ’Output.To achieve (obtain) the aim of development
ratio of the national output .it is supposed that the
(incremental capital-output ratios}amounts: 3:1,consequently
for the planner it is supposed that the overall investment
does not differ from the necessary development
expenditure to obtain this output amounts to 1725 Million
rial in terms of econoay as a whole.
As far as the agricUltural sector is conc.rn~r it Is
alloted a sum of nearly 138.1 .illion rial according to
its fixed price or tlal. is equates to a rate of 14.” out
of the total of the inv••taenta of ~. public sector.
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As far as the first five-year plan is concerned and
which started in 76/1977 and ended in 80/1981, it is .hown
that the plan depended on the total of the local output as
an indictor or sign of development. Moreover, its ratio at
development was called the general ratio of develop-.nt,
The ratio of the local output is determined on the basis
that its annual average is 8.2\. For the contribution ot
the economic sectors in producing the overall local output
the plan expects that the rate Qf the contribution of the
agricultural sector will be reduced from 44.5\ in first
year 75/1976 to nearly 39.2\ in the last year of the plan
80/1981.
It also expects that the desired overall .table
capital structure during all the years of the plan aaourtt.
to 15971 million rials. Out of this capital,the a9r1Qul~
tural sector is allotted a ratio of 14.3\,therefore it 1,
in the third position in terms of the amount or .1•••ot
the stable investments. The productivity of the real uni~
in the capital of the ecomonic plan as a whole i8 ••tima~
ted to’be about,O.l6 rials: and in the agricultural .ector
about.,O.l3 rials. The plan estimates the increase 1n the
number or workers or labouress to be above the raee 8.7t.
The agricultural sector obtains froa this increa•• in the
nUBar of labourer. about aa to’ thou.and laJaoure•.a. Th1.
increase leads to tha change of labourers’ fr_awork 1h
this sector in the period of the basic initial year and
the fifth year of tha plan fro. 73.3’ to 69.2.Moraovar the
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correlation of employment, or in other words the c08t of
creating one job position in this sector reaches 100.7
thousand rials.
As far as the second five-year plan (1982-1986) !.
concerned it is shown that the plan follows the same 11he
followed in the first-five year plan in regarding the
overall local output as an indicator of development. This
plan determin~s to this output an annual ratio of dev&lopment
that amounts to 7% during the time of the plan from
1982 to 1986.As for the desired contributions of the other
economic sectors in this output, the plan expects that the
ratio of contribution of the economic sector will decrease
from 28.5% in the first basic initial year to 25 in the
fifth year of the plan: and it is the same method followed
in the first five-year plan. To obtain the goals of the
local output the plan determines the desired overall
stable capital structure to be 28.1 milliard rials as th.
total to the years of the plan or the bUdget.The aqrlcultural
sector obtained 13.6% out of the total of the capital
structure, therefore it occupies the third position. It is
shown that the real output of the unit in the capital
equals, 0.186 rials for the national income and 0.22 rials
in the. agricultural sector. The plan indicates that the
desired employment opportunities reaches 154 thOu••nd
labourers. Out of this increase, the agricultural ••at-or
”gets 36.3 thousands work opportunity.This plan tha1; 1••d.
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to the ncrease in the number of labourers intend. to
bring ab ut a change in the structure of labourers, .a to
reduce t e ratio of its contribution from 69\.1 ih th.
first ba ic plan year to 64\ in the last plan year. Her.
the corr lation of employment or the chance of cr8atinq
-one job pportuni ty reaches about 105.4 thousand rial. il\
the agri ltural sector.
As r as the third five-year plan is concerned(1987-
plan determines the desired ratio of the annual
the average of the total local output durfrom
1987 to 1991 to be about 8.1\ in the
omy,and about 3\ in the agriCUltural sector. For
d contributions required from the other economic
the local output, the plan expects that thi. ~t
ltural sector will be reduced from 28.5\ in the
year to 22.5\ in the final year of the plan.
developm
in9 the
whole ec
the desl
sectors
the aqri
first pI
To tain the goal of the local output, the plan al~s
at 9 o~t an overall total of investments that can
t 38582 million rials for the total of the years
of the The agriCUltural sector obtains 44.1 mIllion
rials. a ratio of 11.4\ out of the total investments,
therefor it occupies the fourth position.The plan exp.cts
tha t the incremental capital, in the agricul tural ••otor
will be bout 1.81 and that the output of the real .unit
out of ~ Qapi’-aJ. •••• 1. 10 (fil.: •••. ;riel •• ’&’he”l_n”.
aim is e ending the profitable ••playaent apportuniti.a.
-development whos average amounts to 6.23%, but annually
this ratio of de elopment is unstable due to the unatab!-
lity of al output which form about sot out ot the
overall local in the average period of the
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programme.
The three- ears’ programme succeeded in ateaininq
what excels the developing expenditure in the plan. Tl’\e
total of invest ants carried out in the A. S. during the
period of the ogramme reaches 584 million rials or What
equals the overall total of the carried out
investments in e economy as a whole and Which reaches to
1764.5 million als.Moreover, this programme succeeded in
-attaining individualistic indications since the
capital obtaine in agriculture is (1:0.87); this meana
that each 87 fi i.e.0.87 is a unit of investment that
creates a new unit of the local A. output.
By general and individual indioatlon$
to the achievem the plan during the period of the
five-years’ (76/1977-80/1981) it is found that:.the
plan could not e able to achieve fully its aims in the
area the overall local output. As far as the
local output i the A.B. is concerned, we not that this
sector was expo ed to some inac~ivity during the period,
hence the ratio of its development did not exo•• 4,
l’ versus 5.5’ e planner attribute. such an inaatl~lty
due the lack he va~r of irrigation, aigration ot f.~
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labourers and th difficulties related to marketing, distributing,
and st ring the A.products. This is also du. to
the smallness of the land Holdings.As for the contribution
of the A. S. in roducing the overall local output it is
.shovn that this is reduced from 40.7 at the start of the
plan to 32.2% at its end.
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For distri ting the stable overall capital structure
obtained that r aches to 11558 million rials durinq the
years of the pl n, the A.S. obtained a .sum of 866 million
rials, the rati here equals 7. 5\: versus 14.3\: a. it is
planned. There! re the A.5. occupies the fifth position
but it is plann that it should be in the third posit1on.
This indicates hat the volume of the stable carried out
investments is ittle and is not relevant to the plan’s
objectives. In he A.S. the i”:~rementa1 capital reacheS
8.7% versus 3.2 in the plan and the value of this factor
indicates the nvestment policy ot the tirst tive-year.
plan did not chieve the desired success in te~a of
economic effici ncy.Moreover,during the period of the plan
labourer’s st is reduced from 75. 5\: in the first
plan year the final plan year.
When the
plan (76/1977-
years’ plan(19
the direct inf
plan, it 1s s
riod of carrying out the first tive year.
/19&1) calle to an end, the second elV.”
-1986)began to be:i~le.ented. By .~u4y!nO
encea of planning diJring the period Of ’hi
~. coft~ifteu. ~e~loft at ale ”la’tY.
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importance to t contributions of the A.S. in producing
the local But in spite of this, the A.S is .till
producing the rgest proportions that exceed all the
other sectors~t it occupies the first proportional
significance. B t the obtained A. out.put refers to the
reduction of th level of performance in the A.S. a. it
cannot achieve he desired annual development. The data
refer that the efficiency of the stable capital itl the
A.S. is reduce during this plan; i •e the Incrementa1
capital is 6.1. This obvious reduction in the effiaiency
of investments is due to damages from which the A.S
suffered as a esul t of both the irrelevant or the bad
physical and ate during the years of the plan.
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Moreover, t is shown that the cost of employment
opportunity (e loyment correlation) attained in the. A.S
reaches about 6 thousand rials; and it is the bighest
employment cost if it is compared with the
employment cost attained 1n the n«tiona1
economy. It is the highest a1s9 it it is compared with
that r sectors.
Whenthe cond five years’ plan came to an and the
third five ye plan· (1991-1987) of the econOJliOand
social develop began to be i-*plemented. DUe to 1:11’
present contin ty of the third tlv. years’plan and to th.
lack of datancernlng the resulU ot the i.w:plentatloftt
except s01le i .icationa about 1:he first three y_ra ot
-this plan (1987- 989) this study is only confined to these
years. Through udying the direct influences of planning
during e years ot the Jrd tive-years, plan on
the A. deve Lopme we note that the plan succeeded Ln
attaining the in the local output produced by the
A.S. It is found that the attained overall production till
the end of 1989 which is the third year of the plan has
exceeded the de ’red limit set in the plan. There is also
an increase in e overall production in the group of dry
beans, the all production in the group of the
industrial crop and clover, but both the groups of fruits
and vegetables ailed to attain·~ the desired aim .et in
the plan.
As far as the animal production is concerne4 the
amount of meat . creased, this increase took place in both
the red meat an the white meat or poultry. This increase
took place also in milk, egg, and fish production by the
following ratio :8.9, 15.3, 9.3, 12.1, 13.6 respectively
during the peri d of the three years 1987-1989. And the
capital and the invest.ent structure indicator shows ~hat
the obtained an al average at develop.ent ratios of the••
capital structu i.e. the fixed production a••• ta in
the seetor s to 1.03 during the period of th. ~r ••
plan years of the third five-years’plan (1,a7-
1991) which is at finished yet, and its results aN not
obvious .eover this average or ••an is .xt~lY
low.
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As for the efficiency of investment, it is shown that
it is planned that the productivity of the real unti(rial)
out of the invested capital in agriculture during the
period of the three years (1987-1989) is about 0.61 rials,
i.e 61 fils. But the actual productivity during the aame
period is estimated to be about, 0.76 rials, i.e 76 til.
and this indicates the high efficiency of investment. in
the A.S. Moreover, our study shows that the projects w”14h
are the means used by the plan to attain the aims ot th.
plan are not in reality projects of production oX’ A.
services but research projects.
Finally, this chapter studies the economic influ_no••
of economic planning resulting from carrying out both th.
A.horizontal and vertical development programes,i.e.c~rrying
the horizontal and vertical ”agricultural expansion .in
.the Arab Republ ic of yemen. The study shows the thx- ••
years’ programme did not include an estimation ot 1:the
planned and actual agricultural areas. Moreover, bot~ the
first five-years’ plan (1982-1986) have failed to attain
the purpose of expanding horizontally the A.area,•• it is
greatly reduced. Through studying the period (1910-1989)
to knoW’ its direction8 or diaensions at the end of the
third year of the third five-years, plan (1987-1991) 1~ i.
shown from equating the estiaated veneral direction that
the agriCUltural, area reduction is about 14.126 tbo~.and
hectares yearly or annually.
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It is found, through studying the results Of the
vertical A.expansion, in terms of the general direction
for each of the cultivated area and the hectare’s produot~
ivity (hectare’s crop or harvest),and the overall production
of the most important field crops during the period
1970-1989 that the area of grain crops has been reduced or
diminshed, except for the wheat’s and the maize’s area$.
This reduction has significant statistical ratioes but
there is no obvious improvment in the hectare’s harvest
for all grains. But as for the whole production there is
an obvious improvement in the wheat and maize wherea. the
production of the other grain crops is annually and significantly
reduced during the period of the study.MoreQver,
the cultivated area of the dry beans has been signiticant~
ly reduced,but the overall hectare’s harvest has obviously
improved.
Concerning the area and the hectare I s harvest 1n
vegetalHe crops, and the overall production there is an
increase except for the overall production of potatoe••The
study also refers that the area, harvest, and production
of fruit-harvest was increasing except tor the area of the
other fruits, and except for grapes.The study reveala that
there is an increase In the area and production ot cotf••
and sesame among the industrial crops. This incr.... haa
significant annual statistics. But .eanwhile ita heatar.
harvest was yearly di.inishing In a statistical way •
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As for the cotton crop its area, production and
returns dimished at a significant statistical annual
level. But for tobacco, in sipte of reducing its area at
an insignificant statistical annual lever, ther. i. an
increase in its returns that led to increas1n~ its
production. However, the overall production of ”red ••at··
and poultry (White meat). eggs, milk, and fish meat ha.
increased by a significant statistical annual levels.
RECOHKENDATI:ONS
NoW we turn to the conclusion. Through analyses in
-this research study we have arrived at certain conclusions
that prove the existence of various obstacles or problems
that face agricultural planning in the Arab Republic of
Yemen. These problems are as follows
1) There is a lack in the components ot the A. planning in
terms of technical caders (or staft) and special1.el;
investment sums, data, and intormation concemint tht
A.changes or variables. These are not to be fauna 0’
obtained in an accurate ••thod.
2) There is an interest in carrying out several project.
regardless of the material financing and h\m8n power.
available •
.3) Depending seai-exclusively on foriqn expert. an4
financing in planning and carrying out the A. proj.ct••
4) The trend of not following the scientific atandard- in
selecting the pnjecta leads to puttiDC) the propo•• d
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projects by the ministry of agriculture in the plans,
consequently this leads to failing to attain t~e
desired goals due to scattering the materialistic and
human resources on this great number of projects.
5) There is lack in terms of cooperation and arrangoment
among the A. projects themselves, and the projects and
the other organizations concerned with this type of
work.
6) The A.projects lack the element of ”openness”: Making a
real contact with the farmers and knowing their problems
and helping them to solve these problems.This 1s due
to the absence of the local object in these project••
7) The.weakness in the means of the A.guidance, counselling,
instructions and lack of integration between the
scientific research and guidance.
To overcome, or to lessen the severity of these
problems and obstacles in the future A.plans, the .tudy
makes the following recommendations :
1) No expansion in establishing the general ••rvice
organizations, and the necessity of re-evaluatiftt th.
role of these organizations as they are now a burden on
the A.S.through spending the A.credit. on purpo••• th.’
do not serve the process of increasing and deY.lopin9
the production. Therefore,ther. 1. a need.to tind other”
substitutes to Rperviae the A. work in ••ell
governorate.
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2- Combining the A.projects that are of the same nature (
in order to prevent contradiction and scattering
efforts in vain on these projects.In the past there was
no arrangement or integration among these projects.This
was also the case among the organizations that supervise
these projects.Moreover the ministry of agriculture
failed to unify these proJects and provide actual
supervision.
3) stressing the A.researches through the A.research
organization and its centres. This means creating a
unity to all the activities of research of the
A.Research organization, and drawing cadres to thi.
research organization through raising the bonus and t~.
advantages offered to them.
4) Finding the correct statistical basis or base tot’ th.
A.S that is based on a scientific basis and avoiding a.
tor as possible random estimations in order to put th.
actual or real A.plans.
S) The necessity ot A.crop-variations, and making u•• of
the area allotted to cultivatinq sorghua and .illet a.
its economic significance is dl.inished. This can be
done by inforainq fanaers vith the importance ot the
new crops and the Mca.sity of followinq the A. circle.
6) Ensuring the availability of funds or financiD9 tor th.
basic project before including it aJlOng the d••tree!
projects of the pJ.aft that vill be carried out.MoreOVer,
it is necessary not to include in the plan any prClject
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laCking local or foreign financing. This is done to
avoid the error made in the previous plans.
7) Ensuring the existence of the constant and aCCurate
fOllow-up of the A. projects and realizing that it is
not enough to be satisfied with more reports written to
the higher authorities about the position ot the
projects;because thl9sereports do not commit themsGlve*
to truth.
8) Overcoming the lacl< in the A.labourers by ecourllglnq
the labourers and the unemployed who migrated from the
countryside to the chief cities and the capital to return
once more to practise farming in the count~side.
There shoUld be genE!rOus bonus to make them return and
prefer the A.labour.
9) The necessity of exp~:tndingthe establishing of productive
cow farms to fac:e the rise of demand on the lOd.l
milk and on dairy Products. Theee product. ’los n01<
imported. There is ;olso a need to 1mporve the loCI••
breeds, distribute new breeds, and establishing 100a.
industries for the dairy products.
10)Desi.gning an obvious :strategyfor facing the probl •• of
irrigation water as it is regarded as one of the b••to
determinants ot the ,~.expanBlon. This can be don. by
bUilding big stori”9 CIa•• , .uch .s Ma’rib 08. to en.ur.
the Plentifulln ••s of irrigation water.
11)SUpporting and enCouraging establi8hing faraera’aoai._
ties in order to OVereo•• the probl•• of _11 label.
holdings froa which tar.inC)or A.in Yeaen .utter.