![]() | يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام |
المستخلص SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Egyptian foreign trade is considered one of the main factors that affect Egypt’s national economy. The foreign trade including agricultural trade is related to the nature and trend of the changes in the economic policy towards the economic liberalization, hence, these changes cannot be independent of the agricultural foreign trade. Egypt’s agricultural foreign trade had been achieving a surplus in foreign currency until 1973, but since 1974, the deficit began to appear in the agricultural trade balance of Egypt because the receipts of the agricultural exports was incapable of covering the value of agricultural imports. The problem of the study is represented in the advantage of the foreign trade liberalization programs on Egypt’s national economy. The study aimed at evaluating the economic influences, resulted from agricultural foreign trade liberalization concerning the agricultural commodities such as cotton, rice, potatoes and wheat before and after Egypt had adopted the economic liberalization policy. The study was based on several published and nonpublished data by local and international aspects, that is in addition to other researches and references specialized in this field. Summary and Conclusion ------------ The study used the descriptive approach beside statistical and econometric tools to achieve its objectives. Regression analysis and (ANOVA) are used widely in the study. The study includes four chapters, the first one comprises a review of literature and the theoretical frame work of the previous studies in the same field. The second deals with the Egyptian agricultural foreign trade, while the third chapter contains a review of the Egyptian economic policies. The fourth chapter deals with the liberalization effect of the international agricultural trade on studied crops. In relation to the evaluation of foreign trade policies, three stages have been identified socialist stage (1964-1973), open economic policy (1974-1985) and the economic liberalization stage (1986-1998). In analyzing the effect of economic policy on agricultural foreign trade it has been found that the value of the exports of agricultural commodities proved to be decreased significantly in a percentage of about 7%,5.9% and 8% on average during the three studied periods in order respectively. The value of the imports of agricultural commodities decreased significantly in a percentage of about 5.5% on average during the first period (1964-1973), while it was increased significantly in a percentage of about 9.5% during the third period (1986-1998), but it was approximately constant during the second period (1974-1985). Summary and Conclusion _ 2 The fourth chapter focused on evaluating the economic effects of international agricultural trade liberalization on some agricultural commodities. In relation to raw cotton the study indicated that the Egyptian raw cotton experts proved to be approximately constant during the three studied periods. The exported raw cotton price increased significantly in a percentage of about 5% and 5.7% during the periods (1964- 1973) and (1974-1985), but it was merely constant during the third period (1986-1998). The cash value increased significantly in a percentage of about 6% during the first period, while it was constant during the second and the third periods. Rice exports increased significantly in a percentage of about 13.9% and 75.30% during the periods (1974-1985) and (1986-1998) in order, but it was approximately constant during the first period. The exported rice price proved to be approximately constant during the first and the second periods, while it was increased significantly in a percentage of about 12.1% during the third period. The cash value proved to be approximately constant during the first period, while it was decreased significantly in a percentage of about 10.9% during the second period, and it has significantly increased in a percentage of about 13.2% during the third period. Summary and Conclusion ------------- 3 Referring to potatoes, results indicated that the amounts of exported potatoes increased significantly in a percentage of about 7.8% during the the third period while it was constant during the first and the second periods . The exported potatoes price increased significantly in a percentage of about 7.4%,8.1% and 7.5% during the three periods in order. The cash value proved to be merely constant during the second period, but it was increased significantly in a percentage of about 15.3% and 11.4% during the first and the second periods. As for wheat it was revealed that the imported amounts was approximately constant during the first and the second periods, but it increased significantly in a percentage of about 4.3% during the third period. The imported wheat price was constant during the first period, but it increased significantly in a percentage of about 7.8% and 8.8% during the second and the third periods in order. The cash value of imported wheat increased significantly in a percentage of about 8.5% and 11.4% on average during the second and the third periods but it was constant during the first period. As for uruguay round results show that it has no the Egyptian exports of raw Cotton and the imports of wheat but it has an effect on the exports of Rice and Potatoes. Summary and Conclusion _ 4 |