الفهرس 
الباب الاوليوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
SUMMARY
The animal production is considered the only source to provide animal protein necessary for human food. This is represented in red meat, poultry meat, fish, dairy, eggs, and others. The average of meat income is about 7939 million L.E, which represents 85% of the animal income average which reached 9359 million L.E, during the period of study (1980 — 1998). It represents about 33% of the average agricultural income that reaches about 28315 million L.E, during the same period of study.
The problem under study is represented by the decreasing in the average protein per capita of red meat. Productive power does not satisfy the need of red meat, also the continuous increase in the demand for consumption goods in general and meat in particular, as a result of the continuing increase in population, the improve in income level. Also, the meat production doesn’t match the increase of population. This leads to continuous increase in meat prices that’s not suitable with the income levels in Egypt. This represented an economic burden on the trade balance, hence, the Egyptian balance of payment, and the need for providing private credits in hard currency.
The research aims at studying red meat production in Egypt, studying the most important economic factors that affecting red meat production, and measuring this influence not only on the national level, but also on the field sample level. This research has included, mainly, the following points:
(1)Studying of red meat production in Egypt, and the development in this production and its relative importance.
(2)Studying of cattle fodder in Egypt with its different kinds, and clarifying its relative importance, and evaluating the animal fodder gap .
(3)Determining and studying the most important economic factors affecting the red meat production in Egypt, measuring that influence on the national level and also on the field sample level.
(4)Studying red meat production costs in Egypt through the study sample, evaluating the economic efficiency for red meat production farms in the categories of study sample in the traditional and specialized farms.
(5)Studying the consumption of red meat in Egypt, and the most important economic factors affecting it on the national and sample level, evaluating the food gap for red meat in the current and future period, and suggesting some recommendations to treat them. In addition to this high lighting the role of future, agriculture policies in developing animal wealth sector to be able to reach an agriculture policies to find a balance between the demand and the supply of red meat.
The study depended on an econometric analysis for the multi-relations whether it were time - series data or cross —section data, where the analytical tools were used represented in using simple — multi linear regression in measuring the variables affecting production and consumption of red meat on the national and sample levels. In addition using the general trend, and Variance analysis to measure the significance of the difference between the productive resources of red meat in the categories of study sample, estimating the elasticity of production. Evaluating the economic efficiency for the farms of red meat production in the study sample in El-Gharbia. Moreover, analysis the costs of red meat production to determine the optimum sizes, and profit maximizing sizes for animal production farms in traditional and specialized farm categories. Also, evaluating, animal fodder gap, meat foodstuff gap and how to narrow such estimated meat gap.
The study depended on time — series data on the national level and cross — section data at the field sample level in El-Gharbia Governorate .
The study includes six parts, the first of which is about the introduction which contains the preface, the research problem and its aim, and the research method, and sources of data, and the previous studies, that related with the research subject .
The second part is about red meat production in Egypt, within three chapters, the first one is on the relative importance of the animal income in Egypt. The second chapter is about animal production development in Egypt. The third chapter is about the red meat production in Egypt. The study has indicated in this part that the value of cattle meat, milk, poultry meat, eggs, wool, honey and wax, manure all of these contribute of animal income with about 48%, 20% , 33% , 4% , 0.21% , 0.46% , 5.4% . of the total animal income reaching about 9359 million L.E during the period of the study. While such components contribute in the agricultural income with about 10.7%, 6.7%, 7.6%, 1.4%, .07%, 0.15%, 1.5% of the total agricultural income, reaching about 28315 million L.E during the period of the study, on the average.
The study has revealed that the number of heads of farm animals the produce red meat increase at an annually statistically significant rate reaching about 340 thousand heads, that represents about 2.7% of the total number of farm animals • reaching about 12.64 million heads of cattle during the period of the study 1980-1998. Cows, buffaloes, sheep, goats, camels, pigs, that reaching about 2890, 2684, 3796, 3026, 192, 51 thousand heads of cattle. Each of these represents 23% , 21% , 30% , 24%. , 1.2% , 0.4% of the total number of farm animals during the period of study respectively.
The study has estimated cows, numbers during years 2005, 2010, 2015 with about 3506, 3698, 3891 thousand heads, respectively. Whereas, the study has estimated the numbers of
buffaloes at about 3503. 3759, 4014 thousand heads during the same years respectively.
The study has indicated that red meat production has increased at an annual statistically significant amount of nearly 19.50 thousand tons, represents about 3.6% of the average of red meat production that reaches about 545 thousand tons during the period of the study [1980 — 1998] . The meat of cows, buffaloes, sheep, goats, camel, pigs contribute about 45.7%, 33.6%, 9.5 % 5.5% 5.1%. 0.6% for the mentioned types respectively, [W2 =
0.84].
The study has indicated that the production of meat with its different types has increased at an annual statistically significant amount of nearly 55.51 thousand tons, that represents about 4.3% of the total of production for meat, reaching about 1.298 million tons during the period of study. Red meat contributes about 42% and white meat about 58%.
The third part included cattle fodder production in Egypt through three chapters, the first includes green fodder production the second chapter includes dry fodder production, the third chapter includes animal fodder gap. The study has also indicated that green fodder production has increased during the period of study at an annual statistically significant amount of nearly 57.82 thousand tons represents about 0.11% of the average of green fodder production reaching about 54.44 million tons. While the rough. dry fodder has increased at an annual statistically significant amount reached about 444.3 thousand tons representing about 3.6 % of the annual production of such fodder reaching about 12.28 million tons during the period of study. Concentrated, dry fodder has increased at an annual non-statistically significant amount reaching about 23.26 thousand tons, representing about 0.53% of the average of production such fodder reaching about 4.36 million tons.
The study indicated that green fodder contributes on the average about 44.8%, 67.3% of the total average of starch amount, digested protein amount, reaching about 9.84, 1.74
Summary
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million tons of starch, and digested protein during the period of study [1980 — 1998] respectively. Also, the rough dry fodder contributes about 27.5%, 3.8% of the total average of starch amount and digested protein amount offered respectively. Whereas concentrated dry fodder contributes about 27.7% . 28.9% of the total average each of the starch amount, digested protein amount, offered during the period of study respectively.
It’s obvious that the green fodder ranks first of the fodder offered, followed by concentrated, dry fodder, then rough dry
fodder.
The study estimated the real gap in animal fodder of about 2.34 million tons of starch, 0.200 million tons of digested protein year 1998, represented about 17.4% 9.9% of the total of available fodder for local feed reaching about 13.43, 2.02 million tons of starch, and digested protein respectively. Also, the study -estimated the typical gap in animal fodder of about 8.65 million tons of starch, and about 356 thousand tons of digested protein in the same year, represented about 44.1%, 16.4% of the total of fodder needed with about 19.84, 2.17 million tons of starch, and digested protein in the same year respectively. As a result. the self-sufficiency rate of animal fodder reached about 55.9% of starch, 83.6% of digested protein in the same year 1998.
The study has expected the real shortage of animal fodder in the shape of starch during years 2005, 2010, 2015 of about 2.36, 2.9, 3.44 million tons of starch respectively. Also, it has estimated the real expected shortage of animal fodder of digested protein of about 0.20, 0.25, 0.29 million tons during the same years, respectively. The study has predicted traditional shortage of starch of animal fodder during the same years of about 9.7 , 10,53 , 11.35 million tons of starch respectively. The study has expected also, the traditional shortage in animal fodder as digested protein with about 0.51 , 0.63 , 0.75 million tons during the same years respectively.
The fourth part deals with the statistical, economic analysis of the most important economic factors affecting red meat
Summary
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production in Egypt. It is divided into three chapters, the first is to determine the most important economic factors affecting red meat production in Egypt, while the second chapter deals with red meat production in El —Gharbia Governovate. It also included sample description determining, the most important economic factors affecting red meat production, and some of social, economic characteristics of study sample. The most important economic and productive indicators of fatting calves of cows and buffaloes in study sample categories. It also handled analysis the variance to the average of factor differences. affecting red mead production and between the animal categories in the study sample on one hand and between the traditional and specialized farms in the study sample on the other hand. The third chapter deals with the measuring estimation of the most important economic factors affecting red meat production in the
study sample.
The study has indicated that the most important factors affecting red meat production are: the number of farm animal units, the area of permanent Clover, green fodder as starch, rough fodder as starch. concentrated fodder as starch, manufacturing fodder as starch, the number of - farming tractors, red meat real farm price per ton, poultry meat real farm price per ton. fish meat real farm price per ton. manuf-actured fodder real price per ton. wheat hay real farm price per load, clover real farm price per ton. The study has also indicated that the effect of change in such previous factors altogether on red meat production by using a model of multi — regression , that the most important of such factors are: poultry meat real farm price per ton, the area of permanent clover, clover real farm price per ton, and the animal units number, as with the increase of each one respectively with one unit. leads to increasing of red meat production of about —0.75.0. 0.270, 60.09. 0.010 thousand tons . The equation was significant at the level of (0.01), the total productive
Summary
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elasticity reached about 0.825. This means that decreasing returns to scale .
The study showed that the results of an econometric estimation of the influence of the most important economic factors on the total red meat production in the study sample in EI-Gharbia.
In the first category in the traditional farms the concentrated feed was the most important factor affecting red meat product The equation was significance at the level of [ 0.01 ] , the total productive — elasticity was about 0.857 which means decreasing returns to scale , [
R-2 = 0.84 ] .
The second category of traditional farms the
concentrated fodder and green fodder were the most important factors that affected the total red meat product. The total production — elasticity was about 0.845: The equation was significant at the level of [0.01], [R2 = 0.821.
When studying the functional distribution to the product, the portion of concentrated feed was about 76.4 %. and green fodder portion was about 13.6 % of the estimated meat product.
In the third category of the traditional farms, the most important factors affecting total meat product were concentrated feed amount, rough fodder amount.„- and the level of farmer education, Also, the total productive elasticity was 0.939, which means decreasing productive relation — The function was significant at the level of 10.01] and [ R-2 = 0.98 .
When studying functional distribution of the product. the concentrated feed was about 37.02 % rough fodder was about 24.9%, and education factor was about 38.03 °A) of the meat product.
But in the fourth category [specialized Farms]: it proved that the most important factors affecting the total
Summary
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red meat product were: concentrated feed amount, animal scale, and the farmer’s age. The total productive elasticity reaches about 0.574 means decreasing returns to scale. When studying functional distribution of the product, it was showed that the portion of the concentrated feed factor about 48.7 %. and the farmer age about 27.5 %, and the portion of animal scale about 23.8 % of the estimated
meat product.
The study has also indicated that the effect of the most important economic factors on the net product of red meat in the study sample in EI-Gharbia.
In the first category in traditional farms the most important factors are : concentrated feed amount, green fodder amount. and the value of human labor. The total productive elasticity was about 0.929. That means
decreasing productive relation. The function was significance at the level of [0.01]. and [W2 =0.98].
The value of the marginal product for the
concentrated feed, green fodder, and the value of human labor reached about 892.91. 51.74. 0.050 L.E per ton respectively. The price of purchasing the concentrated feed was about 460 L.E per ton, and price of purchasing the green fodder was about 62 L.E per ton, and the average of human labor’s wage was about 369 L.E per one round. So. the economic efficiency was realized for the function as a whole, whereas the productive relation was decreasing. as for every resource separately. The condition of economic efficiency is the marginal product value for the resource more than its wage in the market — this condition was realized for the factor of concentrated feed amount, but it was not realized for the green fodder, and the human labor value.
As for the second category in the traditional farms. the study indicated that the most important factors were the human labor value. and the farmer education level.
Summary
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The total productive elasticity reached about 1.068 which means increasing productive relation, The function was significant at the level of [0.01], and [R-2 = 0.95].
’l’he economic efficiency condition was realized for the function as a whole. Also, this condition has realized for the concentrated feed factor.
In the third category in the traditional farms, the study showed that the most important economic factors affecting the net red meat product were : rough fodder and concentrated feed amount. The total productive elasticity reached about 0.914, this means decreasing productive relation. The function was significance at the level of [0.01] and [ R = 0.94 . The condition of economic efficiency was achieved for the function as a whole. Also, this condition was achieved for rough fodder only.
In the fourth category [specialized farms]: the study showed that the most important economic factors affecting the net red meat product were: concentrated feed amount, and the farmer ambition level. ’l’he total productive elasticity reached about 1.54, which means increasing productive relation. The function was significant at the level [0.01]. and [R.2 = 0.79]. The condition of economic efficiency has been fulfilled for the function as a whole. Also, this condition has been fulfilled for the concentrated feed factor.
The results of study show that the most important economic factors affecting each of the following: Total income, total product of red meat are concentrated feed amount, rough fodder amount, and green fodder amount. These Factors have occupied the first rank, while the human labor cost, animal scale, farmer’s age, the farmer’s education level, and the farmer’s ambition level, all of these occupied the second rank.
The fifth part deals with the economic analysis for costs of red meat production in El-Gharbia governnorate.
Summary
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This is through two chapters. The first included the production cost of animal unit, while the second chapter is about cost function analysis of red meat production in the categories of study sample farms.
The study indicated that. (1) The relative importance for the different cost items has been identical in order in the first and second patterns, as the cost of purchasing animal unit that occupied the first rank. and followed by the feed cost . whereas, in the third and fourth patterns , the feed cost occupied the first rank , followed by the purchasing cost of animal unit in the second rank . (2) The relative increase in the purchasing cost of animal units in the four patterns whereas it amounted of about 46.8%. 47.5%, 46.1% 40.5 % of the average variable costs in the four patterns respectively. (3) The relative increase in the fodder purchasing cost in the four patterns was 42.3%. 43.5 % 47%. 51.9%, respectively. (4) The decreasing human labor cost in the fourth pattern [ 5.8% ], and the third pattern [ 6.1 % ] in comparison with the second pattern [ 8 % ] and the first pattern [9.6%] . (5) Decreasing of other cost item in the third pattern [0.8%] in comparison with the second, first, fourth patterns, which estimated at about 1%, 1.3 %, 1.7 % of the variable cost of mentioned patterns respectively. (6) The third pattern in traditional farms occupied the first rank, in the net income per animal unit. While the second possessive pattern, and the first possessive pattern in traditional farms ranked
second and third respectively, whereas the forth-possessive pattern in specialized farms ranked forth. (7) As for the return on investment in animal unit, the animal possessive pattern’s order was as Follows: third possessive pattern, second, Fourth, then first, whereas the return on pound investment was 0.126, 0.120, 0. 1 19. 0.100 respectively. (8) The relative increase in the traditional farms efficienCy. The third possessive pattern
Summary
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and second possessive pattern in traditional farms were in the first and second rank. The economic efficiency rate for them was: 112.71%, 11.97% respectively, whereas, the fourth possessive pattern in specialized farms was in the third rank, and the first possessive pattern was in the fourth rank. The economic efficiency rate for them was: 111.94 % 110.03 % respectively.
Concerning farm evaluation in the study categories in red meat production from the calves of cows and buffaloes. In the first category in traditional farms, the average of farm size was about 549 K.g live weight represents about 62.8% of the optimum size of the farm reaching about 874 K.g live weight. there were • 11 farmers that reached this optimum size. Also the farm size that maximizing profit was about 1420 K.g. live weight. The farm economic efficiency, as a whole, reached about
111.6%
As for the second category in traditional farms, the farm size average was 1275 K.g live weight of fatting calves of cows and buffaloes, represents about 128”/o of the optimal farm size reaching about 995 K.g life weight. There were 45 farmers reached to this optimal size. Also the farm size that maximizinv, profit was about 1438 K.g live weight. The economic efficiency of the farm as a whole reached about 143.3%.
As for the third category in traditional farms, the farm size average in this category reached about 2402 K.g live weight, represents about 50% of optimal farm size reaching about 4800 K.g live weight, this size has been fulfilled by one farmer only. Also the farm size that maximizing profit was about 14260 K.g live weight of fatting calves of cows and buffaloes, and the economic efficiency of the farm as a whole reached about
121.7%.
As for the fourth category of specialized farms. the average of farm size reached about 43751 K.g. live weight of fatting calves of cows and buffaloes. This represents about 53.8% of the optimal farm size reaching about 81306 K.g. live weight. This
Summary
size has been achieved by 4 farmers. The farm size that maximizing profit was about 194200 k.g live weight, and the economic efficiency of the farm as a whole reached about 116%.
This six part concentrated on red meat consumption in Egypt through four chapters. The first includes red meat consumption in Egypt. The second chapter is about the most important economic factors affecting red meat consumption at the national level in Egypt. also, it handled the most important economic factors affecting red meat consumption in EL —Gharbia Governorate. The third chapter deals with the food gap of red meat in Egypt. and the methods to reduce this gap. The last fourth chapter deals with the future role of agricultural policies in animal wealth development.
The study has shown that the most important economic factors affecting red meat consumption in Egypt at the national level are: the first factor is the number of population, whereas the elasticity between the consumption and number of population was about 1.104. Then, the second factor is the annual income per capita. and the consumption - income elasticity reached about 0.364, then the third factor is red meat prices, whereas the price elasticity reached about 0.474 - , the fourth factor is poultry prices, whereas the consumption - poultry price elasticity reached about 0.643. The fifth factor is fish prices, and the cross — elasticity of consumption between red meat and fish prices reached 0.243. The sixth factor is the consumption pattern. The study has shown that the spending elasticity of red meat through family budget’s research in the sample during years 1974/1975, 1981/1982. 1995/1996 reached in city sector about 0.907. 0.781. 0.795 respectively. While the spending elasticity in rural sector reached 1.088, 0.547, 0.695 respectively.
The study has indicated that the most important economic factors affecting annual consumption per capita of red meat in EL — Gharbia Governnorate are: red meat prices, poultry prices. Fish prices, and annual income per capita. The price demand elasticity of red meat reached about 5.574 -, and the cross
01111■1”,,
elasticity between red meat consumption, and retail price of poultry . meat and fish meat reached about 0.077, 1.692 respectively. The income elasticity reached about 0.367, that means increasing that the annual income per capita with 10% leads to increase of annual consumption per capita of red meat with 3.67%. The function was significant at the level of (0.01). and (R2=0.54)
The study indicated that the lood gap of red meat amounted to 113 thousand tons year 1.998,represents about 13.3% of the total red meat consumption in the same year. So, the rate of self-sufficiency was 86.7% in the same year. The rate of annual growth of red meat, food gap through the period of (1980-1998) was about 0.97-%.
The study estimated the expected red meat gap through years 2005, 2010, 2015,, to be about 106, 101, 96 thousand tons
respectively.
The study suggested methods to narrow food gap, of red meat through controlling the animal fodder gap. The study suggested (I) Decreasing the area of permanent clover by 50%, to be planted with local beans and barley, which save about 1.29 million tons of starch, and about 0.32 million tons of digested protein. (2) Using the supply — elasticity of some crops, for example, through the supply — elasticity of maize crop, to be able to save about 39 thousand tons of starch. (3) Using replacing. relations between fodder.
Also the study has estimated the marginal product of green. rough, concentrated fodder reached about 4, 6, 87.7 respectively. when using them in red meat production which means that the marginal product of concentrated fodder was bigger than the marginal product of other fodder. That is the concentrated fodder was better in red meat production than other lodder.
Regarding the results of the study, We would like to give the following recommendations:
First: In the field of the fodder resources development:
( I ) Its necessary importance with planting the green fodder crops in summer, which has large advantage of the amount and the feed value. and increasing the meat, and milk production such as Elephant fodder and fodder beet.
(2)Clover consumption should be controlled all over the year, by using a part of it to make hay for animal feeding in summer, Also, by using the modern, technical, methods in keeping, and saving it, Also, it is important to make a good silage of clover.
(3)The area planted with clover should be reduced at the rate of 50%, to be planted with beans and barley to feed animals along the year.
(4)Encouraging the farmers to plant mixed — fodder, that include one type or much of legume fodder crops, with one type or much of cereal crops to use it, in an animal feeding immediately or making hay or silage.
(5)We should make non — traditional fodder by using: maize stover. sorghum stover. rice straw, as well as the stover of cotton, sesame, lupine, and peanuts, in addition to the secondary product of sugar cane and vegetables, after rising its feeding value and dealing it by chemistry.
(6)It is necessary, extending the concentrated fodder crops such as wheat to obtain the rough bran, barley, maize, sorghum. and faba beans.
(7)It is necessary importance that the state has the complementing balance fodder of main food elements. vitamins. menaral salts, in addition to use non-traditional materials in non — traditional fodder production.
(8)It is necessary not to use diseased plant by — products as an animal fodder not after dealing it by chemistry.
Second: In the field of animal wealth development and production:
(1)It should be care and important with animal production sector, and encouraging the farmers on investment in this field, through the interaction the agricultural policies role in this field particular the investment, and productive policy.
(2)Encouraging the Farmers of increasing the numbers of Farming animal units that producing red meat, through encouraging small calves project. and supplying the farmers with needed credit with simple interest, and facilitating the marketing through the supply ministry.
(3)Mechanizing the agriculture to save the energy of the animal that losing in working to enable it to meat power.
(4)As for the investment in the field of red meat production from fatting calves of cows, and buffaloes in the traditional farms, which the optimum Size of the farm is about 3 calves, that equal about 995 K.g. live weight.
(5)As for the investment in the trade scale [specialized farms]. for red meat production from fatting calves of cows, and buffaloes of cows and buffaloes, whereas the . optimum Size of the farm is about 230 calves, that equal about 81306 K.g. live weight
(6)It is necessary not to Kill the Small calves of cows and buffaloes, not after fatting it to be about 250-350 K.g live weight at killing it.
(7)It is necessary improvement the productive efficiency for animals particularly the small farms through genetic -improvement, feed improvement, and treatment the diseases.
(8)Controlling, prices of red meat alternates like as poultry, and Fish, Whereas reducing its prices leads to reducing the consumption amount of red meat.