الفهرس 
الاطار النظرى والاستعراض المرجعى
الطلب على بعض السلع الزراعيةيوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
Inflation is considered as one of the most importantproblems which influence other sectors of the nationaleconomy.Economic development is accompained, in general, by
increase in general level of prices.This is due to achieving
the infra-structure projects which need large quatities of
capital costs inducing actual demand, and creating
increasing consumption of commodities (industrial and
agricultural) and services.
For these considerations, agricultural sector is very
sensitive to inflatory pressures.
The study is composed of four parts:
Part one: presents the various theories of inflation in
two chaptrs.
Chapert one definitions, Kinds and forces leading to
demand push and costpull. They were explained using index
numbers and coefficient of monetary stability with special
refer~nces to developing countries.
Chapter two reviews the literature concerning inflation
at the national and agricUltural levels. Studies on price
policy, money exchange rate, and their effects on agricultural
sector were explained.
Part two: is dealing with inflation and its effects on
the national economy during the period of 1976-1990, using
the various infaltion indices. It was found that the coefficient
monetary stability had been flactuatedat a minimum
of 0.87 in 1984 and maximum of 10.8 at 1983,showing the high
pressure of inflation upon Egyptian economy during this
period.
The rate of financing facilities in 1990 was 20\
greater than in 1976. The inflatory gap began to increase
(using net demand excess) from 4.5\ in 1976 to about 819.2%
in 1990. Figures of increase in monetary supply had been
flactuated from its minimum of 330.8 LE in 1980 to maximum
of 23425 LE in 1988.
The study showed that the Egyptian expoerts were mostly
of raw materials. The world demand for them is characterized
by high elasticity. On the contrary the demand of Egyptian
imports had a wide range of elasticity. The gap between
exports and imports is widening at 7.69’. The effect of
imported inflation was clrealy observed.
The study showed that exchange rate induced inflation
- 3 -
pressure, where official and free ones raised price increase
by 9.46% and 11.36% yearly.
It had been shown that valyes of agricultural productive
utilities such fertilizers, pesticides and seeds were
raising by 6.45% annually.
All these factors reflected inflation pressures on
agricultural production. At last the budget deficit during
the period of study reached a decrease of an average of
19.45% per year.
The third chapter deals with studying and analysis of
the inflation in the agricultural sector in Egypt during the
period 1976-1990, where the index numbers of wholesale
prices of agricultural crops, consumers index numbers and
cost index of rural living have an increasing trend with an
annual growth rate of 49%, 46% and 45.8% respectively.
The annual rate of increase in values of imports and
exports were 11.13% and 2.9’ respectively. Most of the
increase in national imports due to increase of imports of
agricultural commodities.
In Egypt the agricultural credit bank loans increased
31 times during the period of 1976-1990,because most of the
government subsidised interest rates. Agricultural income in
Egypt has grown at a lower rate than the rate of increase in
agricultural loans, in addition the internal elasicity of
agricultural loans during the last three years were nagative.
The study showed also the decreasing share per person
of crop area from 0.296 feddan to 0.207 feddan and cultivated
area from 0.153 feddan to 0.113 feddan showing that the
agricultural sector cannot sustain the food requirements of
population, therefore, imports have been necessary for
solving this difficult problems.
Relations between productivity, wages and prices were
studied, where annual growth rate of these items were 5.4%,
13.6%, 14.49% respectively during the period 1976 to 1990.
Wages increases were higher than these of productivities
which induced iflation pressure at the national level.
The annual growth rate of current agricultural capital
and fixed capital investement (at fixed prices) were only
4.7% ad 3.5% respectively which led to retardation of the
agricultural sector. The study showed that the annual rates
of increase in production value, value of production inputs
and agricultural income at current prices were 12.05%,
12.23% and 11.94% respectively. Annual increase rates of
agricultural investement and agricultural subsidies were
11.2% and 10.43% respectively.
Estimations obtained in this research showed a significant
positive relation between the index number of wholesale
prices of agricultural products and index numbers of prices
of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and wages in agricultural
sector. The R2 between these four productions inputs and
wholesale prices of agricultural products were 0.96, 0.97,
0.84 and 0.92 respectively. It means that 96%, 97%, 84% and
92% of price flactuation were due to inflation in that
sector. The double logarithmic model estimated the elasicity
between the wholesale prices and the four inputs prices.
Increase in the index number by 10% of these four production
inputs the wholesale prices of agricultural products will
increase by 9.7%, 10.8%, 16.6% and 8.9% respectively.
Correlation between interest rate and inflation rate
was positive but not statistically significant. This can be
explained by the stability of interest rate during the first
half of period under investigation.
This disseration reveals a positive significant correlation
between agricultural loans and interest rate, also
between investement and interest rate leading to high
production costs.
The first part of the fourth chapter deals with the
effect of inflation upon certain crops which are wheat,
summer rice, summer corn, cotton, sugarcane, summer potatoes
and winter tomatoes with respect of production costs,
profitability and farm gate price, in addition to the
correlation between production costs and net revenue per
feddan for these seven crops.
Period of stUdy 1976-1990 has been characterized by the
following:
1. Steady rate of interest during 1976-1981.
2. Beginning of consumer price liberation.
3. Rising inflation rate.
4. Infaltion rate was gester than interest rate.
Period of study was subdivided into two subperiods to
be able to explain the effects of liberating interest rate
upon the consumes prices of the seven crops under investigation.
The interest rate was increasing at higher rate than
the rate of inflation during the period of stUdy. Production
costs were affected seriously by increasing interest rate
which showed a general positive trrnd statistically significant
with an average annual increase of 6.14%.Using the first subperiod (1976-1981) as basicindex number of interest rate was 210.5, for theperiodsecondsUbperiod (1982-1990), while inflation rate was only 176.16
for the second sUbperiod.
Inflation rate of production inputs of wheat, summer
rice, summer corn, cotton, sugracane, summer potatoes and
winter tomatos were 12.13\, 11.98%, 12.09%, 12.32%, 11.42%,
13.16% and 11.04% respectively.
Also inflation rate for wages were 10.23%, 10.45%,
10.74%, 10.48%, 10.98%, 10.94% and 10.48% respectively.
Inflation rate of farm gate prices per unit were
15.92%, 12.56%, 12.93%, 13.91%, 12.85%, 5.93% and 10.18%
respectively.
Inflation rate of net revenue per feddan were 11.94%,
12.83%, 12.05%. 15.25%, 14.63%, 10.31% and 13.11%
respectively.
Inflation rate of production cost per unit were 9.32%,
10.44%, 9.85%, 12.54%, 10.61%, 10.54% and 11.54%
respectively.
Most of these crops were affected by inflation
espe,cially wheat, potatos, tomatoes to a less degree than
cotton, sugarcane because they were not liberated yet at the
time of study.