الفهرس يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
SUMMARY
AGRICULTURAL FOREIGN TRADE AND ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
IN EGYPT
The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of agricultural foreign trade on the economic development in Egypt during 1976-2005 represented three periods, the first (pre-liberalization period), the second (partial liberalization period), and the third (the economical liberalization period). To achieve this objective the study deals with: the effect of total exports on real pre-capita income, the effect of agricultural exports and imports on real agricultural pre-capita income, the contribution of foreign trade in the real national income, the trend of both general and agricultural commercial balance, estimating the general trend for the main agricultural export and import crops, and redistributing the Egyptian exports in general and the Egyptian agricultural exports in particular in various foreign markets.
This study depended mainly on many demostic and foreign published and unpublished data, and many papers and references related to the subject. The study applied meny quantitative and qualitative statistical and econometric analysis methods of a time series of variables under investigation to obtain the main economic and statistical parameters which effect and were affected by the movement of exports and imports through the period of study.
Moreover, the linear programming technique was applied to this study as one of the methods of planning re-allocating the foreign trade.
The present study included: an introduction which deals with the problem of the study, objectives, methodology, sources of data and the proposal of study. The introduction was followed by two major parts, the first is the theoretical frame and the review of literature, whereas the second part deals with the results and recommendations of study which were arranged in seven chapters.
Summary of the main results and recommendations:
1- There is improvement in the total and agricultural exports where the annual growth rate of exports has increased during the economical liberalization period as compared to before application of economic liberalization policy.
2- The ratio of total and agricultural exports to total and agricultural imports has declined during the period of application of economic liberalization policy.
3- The annual growth rate of the balance of trade has declined during economic liberalization policy.
4- The annual increase in agricultural exports during the economic liberalization period was not due to its quantity but to the increase in the price.
5- The exports values of cotton by current prices, the economical liberalization period preceded the other periods, followed by the partial liberalization and pre-liberalization periods respectively, and regarding the exports values of cotton by fixed prices the pre-liberalization period preceded the other periods, followed by partial liberalization and economical liberalization respectively.
6- Regarding the exports values of rice by current and fixed prices, the economical liberalization period preceded the other periods, followed by the partial liberalization and pre-liberalization periods respectively.
7- The exports values of orange by current prices, the economical liberalization period preceded the pre-liberalization period, and regarding the exports by fixed prices the pre-liberalization period preceded the economical liberalization respectively.
8- Regarding the exports values of potato and onion by current and fixed prices, the economical liberalization period preceded the pre-liberalization period respectively.
9- Regarding the imports values of wheat and maize by current and fixed prices, the economical liberalization period preceded the pre-liberalization period respectively. But regarding the imports values of raw sugar by current prices, the economical liberalization period preceded the pre-liberalization period, and regarding the imports by fixed prices the pre-liberalization period preceded the economical liberalization respectively.
10- The suggested samples of the optimal distribution of the export of cotton, rice, orange, potato, and onion during the economical liberalization period showed that, the biggest export value can be gained from the first model. as the rate of increase in the imports value reached nearly 42.56%, 45.62%, 184.89%, 44%, 401% from the average total of the exports of cotton, rice, orange, potato and onion during the period respectively. In addition, the less import value of wheat, maize and raw sugar can be gained from the first model. As the rate of reduction in the imports value reached nearly 15.19%, 26.97% and 39.65% from the total average of the imports of wheat, maize and raw sugar during this period respectively.