الفهرس 
ABSTRACTOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
 |  | from | 206 |  |  |
| | | from | 206 | | |
Abstract
Traffic accidents problem is one of the problems that disturb the majority of
people all over the world. About 1.27 million people are killed as a result of road
accidents in the world every year.
The purpose of this research is to investigate traffic accidents causes and
major factors that would be the main reasons for accidents, and to develop general
models for accidents on Main National Egyptian Rural Roads. Accurate accidents
models would help decision makers to develop the road network to be more safe.
Accidents data used in analysis and modeling calibration were gathered from
accidents records data collected on 19 rural road sections from previous studies,
covering the national rural roads highways network in Egypt and 9 rural roads
from filed surveys record in Assiut region. Data was splittied into four different
types of road sections concerning locations and engineering properties, namely;
”Undivided agriculture roads”, ”Divided agriculture roads”, ”Undivided desert
roads”, ”Divided desert roads”.
Accidents Rate (AR) is correlated individually with 13 variables. Simple,
Stepwise, and multiple regression analysis have been used to find the effect of
each variable on accidents rate value. Several functional forms are explored and
tested in the calibration process. Before proceeding to the development of models,
ANOVA statistical tests are conducted to establish whether there are any
significant differences in the data used.
Four general models were reached representing Agriculture roads (undivided
and divided), Desert roads (undivided and divided). The results indicated that
exponential model formula represents the highest correlation for all road types.
Main causes affecting accidents probabilities reached were human factors,
average daily traffic (ADT), shoulder width, pavement width, random pedestrian
crossings and percentage of trucks, which have the highest effects of traffic accidents.