الفهرس 
Generating Capacity
Expected energy produced by each unitOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Generation Adequacy Assessment Using
Analytical and Sequential Simulation Techniques
Modern electric power systems have the responsibility of providing a reliable and economic supply of electrical energy to their customers. The economic and social effects of loss of electric service can have significant impacts on both the utility supplying electric energy and the end users of the service. Maintaining a reliable power supply is therefore a very important issue in power system design and operation.
This thesis focuses on adequacy assessment of power generation using an analytical technique and Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo simulation can be considered to be more preferable than an analytical approach in situations which involve, for example: Time-dependent or chronological issues; duty cycle of peaking units, Nonexponential component state duration distributions. Simulation results produced the same expected reliability indices as those obtained analytically. Beside it provided the probability distribution associated with the various reliability indices, which, in consequence, provided additional and more informative data about the behavior of the system.
Most published analytical algorithms take assumption and approximation on the Generation Model or Load Model to reduce the calculation time or computer memory. So, the thesis worked on two parts as the following:
1- Development elaborated an analytical algorithm to get accurate reliability indices. Computation results of this algorithm are used as a benchmark.
2- Development an algorithm to calculate reliability indices by Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) proves to be sound in simulating generation system with exponentially distributed state residence time. It also capable of simulating operating histories for a unit with Weibull, normal or log-normal distributed state residence times. Data of IEEE RTS are modified to consider last possibility.
Both the analytical and the simulation programs were extensively used to get accurate reliability indices and to investigate the following:
a. Effect of Derated States.
b. Effects of Load Forecast Uncertainty
c. Effect of Scheduled Maintenance
d. Effect of Additional Generation (Gas Turbine).
The research in this thesis was conducted using the analytical and simulation programs to “IEEE-RTS” reliability test.