الفهرس 
مقدمةيوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
Egypt is considered the first one of under – developing countries which concerned using of modern technology styles as Expert Systems to increase economic development both horizontally and vertically in the agriculture sector . since the topic of this study is related to the vertical development , it has been confined to this sector whose development can be achieved technologically , so it is very important to use modern technology and expert system as an important source of the agricultural development . The problem of the study represented in how to reach to the optimal function of the expert system and the adequacy of this system to improve the productivity and raising the standard of living . The study aims to identify the response of the economic efficiency in grain crops production by using Expert Systems . The study aims to know the economic efficiency of the current applied technology and the effects of the different technology bundles on the productivity and the net return of cereal crops . The study aims to identify the kind of technological groups used in grain crops production , and the study aims to the following objectives to know the opportunities of investment that could be provided by the expert system and how to develop and modify this expert system . Also to find out the problems of applying this expert system and how to face these problems . The study has used both descriptive and quantitative statistical analyses for the available data such as the one way analysis ( ANOVA ) of variance . linear, multi and Stepwise regression . The study has used production function of kind of KOBB – DOGLAS by adding the double variable . The study was based on both secondary and primary data available in the ministry of agriculture . and other sources for secondary data , and a field survey data collected by the researcher . The study comprises six main parts in addition to the introduction , the problem of the study , its significance research method , sources of data and two abstracts one in Arabic and the other in English , It also included a bibliography comprising both Arabic and English references and a number of appendices . The first chapter handle the introduction and the review of the previous studies in the field of technological progress in Egyptian farming whish it was the starting point of this study . The researcher defined Expert Systems on the practical was co-operation between the government , farmer in the same time to increase , progress agricultural production and welfare . since the practical application for modern production tools will be achieve the most use for production resources . The second chapter concerned with the technological change in the Egyptian agriculture and the corresponding change in the agriculture production and Consumption grain crops ( wheat , rice ) in Egypt through time (1995 – 2009 ) . The third chapter dealt the sample survey of these study . The fourth chapter shows the Statistical analysis for the available data of the concerned crops ( Wheat , Rice ) in Sharkia Governorate . The fifth chapter concerned with the Costs Production of the concerned crops ( Wheat , Rice ) in sample study . also represents the Expert production performance levels of sample crops . The sixth chapter concerned the Economic effects for using the expert system in Production main grain Crops . The results of the study : 1 – It has shown that there is a positive relation between the cultivated area , the quantity of net nitrogen , fertilizers , and human and mechanical worlc from one side and the average production of wheat crop from the other side . whereas it has shown a negative relation between the quantity of seeds and the average production of wheat crop of the expert system from the other side .
2 - The production has increased when introduction the new technology .
3 - The resealts has revealed that the production function of wheat crop is an increasing returns to scale . ( 1.12 ) whereas the control fields the production function was a decreasing returns to scale function ( 0.99 ) .
4 - According to the fields of expert system , the cost of inputs ( seeds , fertilizers , pesticides ) was L E 449.43 / feddan and the cost of agricultural service operations was L E 682.89 / feddan whereas with respect to the control fields , the cost of inputs has reached to L E 426.87 / feddan and the cost of agricultural service operations was L E 672.93 / feddan .
5 - According to the fields of expert system the total cost was L E 2812.32 / feddan , whereas according to the control fields , the total cost was L E 2779.8 / feddan .
6 - The measurement of the economic efficiency has shown . According to the expert system , the productivity was 2.39 ton / feddan , 3.68 ton / feddan for wheat and rice respectively . The cost of production per ton was L E 1174.74 / ton , L E 736.93 / ton for wheat and rice respectively . The total revenue per feddan was LE 4070.67 / feddan , LE 3758.61 / feddan for wheat and rice respectively .
The net revenue per feddan was LE 1258.35 , LE 1044.49 for wheat and rice respectively . The benefit - cost ratio was 1045 , 1039 for the two crops of the study . The net revenue per pound was LE 447 , LE 385 for both crops of the study .
7 - According to the control fields , the productivity was 1.85 ton per / feddan , 2.25 ton / feddan for wheat and rice respectively .
The cost of production per ton was LE 1499.35 / ton , LE 1095.12 / ton for wheat and rice respectively . According to the total revenue , it was LE 2340.98 / feddan , LE 2131.49 / feddan for wheat and rice respectively . The benefit cost ratio was LE 842 / feddan , LE 864 / feddan for wheat and rice respectively .
The recommendations :
1 - Provide the information about the role of the expert system in reducing the cost of production and raising productivity .
2 - Increasing the fields of the expert system in each village and provide free training about the expert system .
3 - Provide information about how to deal with the problems facing the farmers and how to solve these problems .
4 – Increasing researches in the fields of the expert system to develop the per formance with that system .
5 - Spreading the outcomes of this system such as , the cost , the productivity and revenues to make it more acceptable .
6 - The agricultural experts try to find out the best expert system that is more appropriate to the conditions and pattern of agriculture in Egypt .