الفهرس 
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Abstract
A semi-quantitative approach was used to assess the risks of the wide scale spread of Avian Influenza virus subtype H5N1from single epidemiological unit to other units, and to human and animal contacts.’Village’ and ’Farm’ were considered epidemiological units representing the household and commercial poultry production sectors, respectively. The risks were identified by analyzing the disease control policies, sources of infections, and the poultry production value chains.Each risk wassubjected for release, exposure and consequence assessments to generate the overall risk rating.
The results revealed that no risk was rated as very high regarding the widescale disease spread from village level to other epidemiological units. Marketing infected birds from quarantine and nursery farms, live poultry congregation sites,and the part time and wholesale workers, are the main risks associated with the wide scale disease spreadamong farms, and from farms to villages. The wholesale congregation sites play a major role in thevirus amplification and spread among birds before reaching the retail markets.
Suspend the decision to quarantine the day old birds imported from avian influenza free countries,promoterestocking the households by day old birds rather than young growers, and improving the biosecurity practices of the whole sellers and at congregation sites are the recommended risk reduction measures for village level, whereas the movement restriction of visitors and workers are recommended for farms. Closing live bird markets and poultry shops by Law 70/2009 are insignificant disease control measures, however; reducing the release of infected birds from farms and/or reducing the risks at the congregation sites would be more effective.The risk reduction measures for poultry would indirectly reduce the risk ofinfection for human and other animals. Prevent access of children to contaminated surfaces, and prevent the slaughter of infected birds, or at least implement the minimum biosafety measures during slaughtering like using any suitable coveron the nose and mouth,are the recommended risk reduction measures for human. The human infections without a history of exposure to poultry, including family clusters, urge a serious research for the probable disease spillover and/or non-sustained human to human virus transmission. The risks rated as very high and high are important issues to plan cost effective disease controlprograms.