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العنوان
FINANCIAL EVALUATION AND CALCULATING CONCESSION PERIOD FOR BOT PROJECTS IN EGYPT IN THE FEASIBILITY STAGE /
المؤلف
Abdelhafez, Alaa Atif Mohamed.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / الآء عاطف محمد عبد الحافظ
مشرف / إبراهيم عبد الرشيد نصير
مشرف / كمال عباس عساف
مناقش / محمد مهدى مرزوق
مناقش / منال سيد عبد الحميد
تاريخ النشر
2017.
عدد الصفحات
147 p. :
اللغة
الإنجليزية
الدرجة
الدكتوراه
التخصص
الهندسة المدنية والإنشائية
الناشر
تاريخ الإجازة
31/1/2018
مكان الإجازة
جامعة أسيوط - كلية الهندسة - مدنى
الفهرس
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Abstract

While the infrastructure in Egypt is in need of large investment, the fund provided by government are not sufficient to face such a challenge. Build,Operate, and Transfer (BOT) concept, which is being used increasingly
worldwide as a project delivery system that can be a solution to this problem. In this system, a private sponsor finances the design, construction, maintenance,and operation of a public project for a specified concession period, at the end of
which it transfers ownership to the government agency, hopefully after
recouping its costs and achieving profits.
The Egyptian government needs to widely use this system to recoup shortage in
resources and solve a lot of issues in fields of economic, education, energy,health and transport. As examples building schools, universities, hospitals,power plants, roads, water treatment stations, railway and train stations.
Unfortunately, the investors have a lot of fear toward BOT projects due to the lack of experience and information in dealing with such a system in the Egyptian environment, especially in the construction field.
This study propose a methodology to help government and investor to find a compromise for the concession period and to give an impression of the utility of the project and the gains accruing to both. A model was provided to determine a
range of concession periods that would be advantageous both to the government and the private sector. Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate and draw NPV curve. Then NPV curve was used to find concession boundaries. The
model narrowing the concession boundaries by using bargaining game theory. Two cases of study was investigated using the proposed model. Abstract ii On the other hand, Egypt suffers serious inflation of a high magnitude, reflecting a higher level of risk associated with the investment. Inflation affects the consumption and investment pattern of a society, leads to capital flight and
undermines the effectiveness of the financial infrastructure of a country in the
development process. It also means additional risks for long-term investment in
projects. Higher inflation rates are increased associated with inflation
uncertainty. That is why this study tried to investigate the effect of uncertainty in
inflation rate and its effect on NPV curves and concession period. This study
shows that the uncertainties in inflation rate could influence the decision of concession period. Furthermore it could affects the decision of making the project.