الفهرس | Only 14 pages are availabe for public view |
Abstract While the infrastructure in Egypt is in need of large investment, the fund provided by government are not sufficient to face such a challenge. Build,Operate, and Transfer (BOT) concept, which is being used increasingly worldwide as a project delivery system that can be a solution to this problem. In this system, a private sponsor finances the design, construction, maintenance,and operation of a public project for a specified concession period, at the end of which it transfers ownership to the government agency, hopefully after recouping its costs and achieving profits. The Egyptian government needs to widely use this system to recoup shortage in resources and solve a lot of issues in fields of economic, education, energy,health and transport. As examples building schools, universities, hospitals,power plants, roads, water treatment stations, railway and train stations. Unfortunately, the investors have a lot of fear toward BOT projects due to the lack of experience and information in dealing with such a system in the Egyptian environment, especially in the construction field. This study propose a methodology to help government and investor to find a compromise for the concession period and to give an impression of the utility of the project and the gains accruing to both. A model was provided to determine a range of concession periods that would be advantageous both to the government and the private sector. Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate and draw NPV curve. Then NPV curve was used to find concession boundaries. The model narrowing the concession boundaries by using bargaining game theory. Two cases of study was investigated using the proposed model. Abstract ii On the other hand, Egypt suffers serious inflation of a high magnitude, reflecting a higher level of risk associated with the investment. Inflation affects the consumption and investment pattern of a society, leads to capital flight and undermines the effectiveness of the financial infrastructure of a country in the development process. It also means additional risks for long-term investment in projects. Higher inflation rates are increased associated with inflation uncertainty. That is why this study tried to investigate the effect of uncertainty in inflation rate and its effect on NPV curves and concession period. This study shows that the uncertainties in inflation rate could influence the decision of concession period. Furthermore it could affects the decision of making the project. |