الفهرس 
Participatory dynamic modelling framework for sustainable water resources management in Egypt
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Abstract
Nowadays water scarcity is a global concern and it is alarming for the future. In this context, an efficient water allocation among all water demands remains a real challenge for water resources management to policy managers. So, the first phase of this work aims at developing a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate and analyze the future potential state of water resources in Egypt. For building a dynamic modeling framework, multiple stakeholders were participatory, where participatory modelling is presented as a means for sustainable development, as it supports informed decision making and comprehensive development.The developed model illustrates the concept of water resources availability and needs through the use of causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams, equations, and simulation output graphs.This model shows the feedback and interactions between different variables of the water system. The developed model will be the base for a decision support tool that enables policymakers to investigate water resources problem in Egypt and achieve the approximate allocation of limited water resources. The results showed that the expected Egyptian water needs will reach about 93.84 billion m³ in year 2035, an increase average of approximately 22.2 % of the total water needs in year 2004 (73.08 billion m³). The total water resources are expected to be in 2035 about 88.29 billion m^3 is estimated at 129.2 % of Egypt’s total water resources in 2004 (68.64 billion m^3). This means that in the future water needs will exceed total water resources with an increase reached about 5.55 billion m³(6.28 %) in the year 2035. This indicates that Egypt in the coming years will enter in the belt of water scarcity and water poverty.Finally, the model shows that the approximately allocate limited water resources in Egypt in the year 2035 is the allocation of water to the sectors of domestic, agriculture and industry equal to 18.9, 65.61, and 1.38 billion m³ respectively