الفهرس 
Prediction error in reserving methods applied to comprehensive motor insurance
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Abstract
According to the unified actuarial report required by the Egyptian financial supervisory authority (EFSA), the claim reserve estimation process carried by the actuaries is performed using the deterministic models without explicit reference to a stochastic model. However, stochastic models are needed in order to assess the variability of the claims reserve. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze claims reserving methodologies in general insurance in order to assess several discrepancies between deterministic and stochastic models applied to motor comprehensive insurance branch. The chain - ladder (CL) reserve estimation method is one of the most popular claims reserving methods. It is very important to know how accurate the resulting deterministic estimates are. In this thesis, the deterministic claim reserving model as well as the stochastic one in general insurance has been introduced, along with the difference between the stochastic models over the traditional deterministic models, and the comprehensive motor insurance data from an Egyptian public insurance company is analyzed and thetheoretical prediction error for the chain-ladder model is calculated