الفهرس | Only 14 pages are availabe for public view |
Abstract Throughout the years, urban scholars have been interested in studying Urban Systems and related phenomena. Among such phenomena is Urban Growth. In its broader concept, Urban Growth includes the physical, Socio-economic and environmental dimensions (in a particular area). It involves the transition from non-urban to urban activities. In a way, Urban Growth is related to the change of land cover, which happens spatially causing various patterns; functionally in the land uses and temporally with different time rates. Accordingly, many theories and researches attempted to explain how urban growth takes place, what its driving forces and effecting factors are and what its effects are. In this course, models and simulations were developed to aid such work. Overall, modeling is to represent reality of the system to be studied in a simple and abstract way. In the domain of Urban planning, modeling could be designed and used for analyzing, evaluating and forecasting. Thus, it could be helpful for decision-makers to predict what the results of their decisions are. However, after the developing of complexity and non-linear theories - the most promising science in the 21st century (Cheng, 2003) -, new development wave of modeling and simulating appeared to represent these new theories and apply it in the different fields within them Urban System. In this thesis Urban Growth System is explored; its driving and effecting factors - its negative effects. Then, the methods for modeling urban system are presented. After that, some examples of real Urban Growth models are shown to finally conclude the data required for building an Urban Growth Model in Egypt, rules, scenario, analysis and output. |