الفهرس 
acknowledgmentOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Although the Alexandria and El- Dekheila port are the most Important maritime port in Egypt . Little research has been done into forecasting flows and marine accident . on the other hand , EMS has received a great deal of attention over the past few years . They are being used in the areas of production and classification areas where times series models and other related statistical techniques have traditionally been used . The models obtained provide useful insight into the behavior of maritime traffic flows. Alexandria and El- Dekheila ports are located in the west average of the nile Delta between the Mediterranean Sea and Mariut Lake. Alexandria port covers an area of about 9600000 square meters ( water area about 8500000 square meters and land area about 1100000 square meters ), and customs zone covers an area of about 90000 square meters. El- Dekheila port is west word Alexandria port , 7km distanced from sea and 10 km from land. El- Dekheila port covers an area of about 6 sq km. approximately ( water area about 2.74 sq km and land area about 3.2sq km). Ships’ movement were 21496 ships during the years of (1999-2003) average of ship.s movement 12 ships per day approximately.