الفهرس Only 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Prediction of sea water level constitutes major input information in coastal zone planning and management. Changes in regional and global sea water level have fascinated scientists since well before the turn of the 20th cenwrc. Changes in sea water level depend on the uncertain evolution of variety of physical and social systems that determine atmospheric composition. climatic evolution, and geophysical response. In this study the global and local factors which affecting the acceleration of sea water level were studied. The accelerated rise in sea water level could cause significant impacts on the world coastal zones especially on the delatic areas along coasts. The most primary impacts of sea water level rise are increasing risk of inundation, flooding and coastal erosion. The degree of these impacts on the Northern Egyptian coast as examined for the year 2020 and 2050. Most of different methods and models to predict the sea water level require comprehensive exogenous inputs and involve some analysis along with certain assumptions. The prediction of sea water level, being uncertain, may not always be amenable to any specific modeling. Recently, there has been a growing interest in the class of computing devices that operate in a manner analogous to that of the biological nervous system (Freeman and Skapure 1991). This device, known as artificial neural networks (ANN) model. The ANN model is built of hundreds or thousands of processing elements in much the same way as the hundreds of billions of neurons in the human brain. Use of neural network techniques to solve civil engineering problems have started in the late 1980s. This study describes the development of artificial neural networks model to estimate sea water level along the Northern Egyptian coast from data of tidal gauges records and weather stations parameters from Alexandria to El-Arish. By using the sensitivity analysis, from ANN results, the effect of different parameters taken from weather stations on sea water level can be investigated.
The relation between the variation of atmospheric pressure, variation of temperature and piling of water onshore as a result of storm surges on sea water level were studied.