الفهرس 
AcknowledgementOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Failure cases of the Public Business Sector companies belonged to the Industrial Ministry have increased. And, the government used to subsidize these companies by giving them additional shares in the governmental contributions, to enable them to face the continuous increases in cumulative loss swallowed partially or totally in capital. Also, in some cases, government merges these failed or imminent to fail companies into successful companies for the purpose of diversity of their activities or for any other purposes. Actually, merging processes have been done even though a suspicion of monopoly, which was disregarded by government, assuming that the negative impacts of failure might be more dangerous. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to make an expert system including a number of financial indicators, which could early reveal the possibility of failure. Through observation of these indicators, managers could make reformation decisions required. There are several companies that were secured by the virtue of pursuing of the administration to financial indicators, which warn the imminence of exposition to the failure hazards.
This thesis is organized into seven chapters. Chapter one includes an introduction about the subject, problem, purpose, importance, and the research’s approach . Chapter two contains a general view for the previous studies in the field of the study’s subject, its advantages, disadvantages, and the most issues it handled. Chapter three discusses the expert system as one of the artificial intelligence applications, identify the expert systems, and the implementation of expert system in the practical life, its components, its implementations languages, and its advantages & disadvantages. Chapter four discusses the methodological framework of the study and includes how to design the sample, conditions of the similarity of the sample and the dependent and independent variables, and the method of applied analysis. Chapter five handles the establishing of the study model, analysis of the findings, field study, analysis the forecasting ability of the model for the five years preceded the failure. Chapter six handles the design of an expert system for forecasting financial crises for companies, also the method of representing the knowledge base concerning the system, how to get it, forming the production rules concerning the expert system, designing an interface for the application of the system, examining the system’s ability of taking the proper decision, and cases of the study. Chapter seven includes results, and recommendations.