الفهرس 
IntroductionOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
In recent decades in Egypt, due to the steady increase in the development of desert lands, there is an increasing demand for efficient management of water resources and accurate information on the land cover change. East Nile Delta represents one of the quickest growing provinces in Egypt. Recently, the study area received the attention of the Egyptian Government, where, a lot of mega-development projects are implemented such as; Suez Canal Development Corridor Project to the east; the El-Salam Canal project to the north; the East Bitter lakes project to the southeast and other reclamation projects in the north and south of the Ismailia Canal. Such great human activities contribute to numerous hydrological problems including; dramatic land cover changes; groundwater logging; soil salinization and water pollution. In this study, a methodology is presented to analyze maps and monitor patterns of land cover change related to agricultural and urban development and expansion in the desert peripheries in the Eastern Nile Delta (END) region in Egypt. Using a hybrid classification approach, multi-time Landsat TM/ETM+ images from 1984, 1990, 1998, 2006, 2015, and 2020 were analyzed to produce six maps of land cover and land use. A post-classification comparison was performed using these maps to obtain ””from-to”” statistics and maps of change detection. The results showed that the rapid increase in changes that occurred between two classes of land cover (urban and agricultural) led to a decrease in the desert land area due to land reclamation and the establishment of new cities in the desert. The results revealed that agricultural development increased by 8.6 % during the period from 1984 to 2020. While the increase in urbanization in the same period was estimated at 4.8%. The increase in urbanization has led to the degradation of traditional agricultural lands due to the urban sprawl on the outskirts of urban centers. The results also confirm the shrinking of El-Manzala Lake and increasing water logging areas from 42.23 km2 to 53.75 km2 during the above-mentioned 36th years with an average rate of 0.32 km2/year reflecting a positive relationship with the agricultural activities along the surrounding desert fringes. The results define to some extent precisely the changes of land cover and determine their spatial patterns, demonstrating the ability of Landsat Information to analyze landscape dynamics over time. This information is essential for making effective and sustainable management policies. As a result of the increasing population and urban expansion in new communities in desert areas, this has had a serious impact on the quality of the groundwater. Groundwater in desert areas bordering the Nile flood plains is relatively vulnerable to pollution. The type and intensity of development determine the potential pollution of groundwater. Pollution of groundwater due to agricultural, domestic, and industrial activities may reduce the use of groundwater for certain purposes and thus have an impact on its planning and development. Therefore, a hydrogeochemical study of water was carried out to evaluate it for use in various purposes and study the interaction between human activities and groundwater quality in the Quaternary Aquifer at the Eastern Nile Delta (QAEND). This study was based on the data of analyzing groundwater wells, main canals water samples, agricultural drainage water, and water ponds from the previous study. This study included determining the electrochemical properties (degree of electrical conductivity) and physicochemical properties (pH) in addition to specifying the salt content and common cations such as potassium, sodium, magnesium, and calcium and common anions such as chloride, sulfates, carbonates, bicarbonate. Some ratios and chemical treatments were calculated to determine the quality of the dissolved salts in the water, correcting them for use in various purposes, and determining their distinctive environmental significance, such as the amount of residual sodium carbonate and the percentage of adsorbed sodium. Detailed maps were prepared for the distribution of the various chemical elements and ratios after matching them with the standard concentrations for different uses to guide the investor when using groundwater in any place of the study area. Hydro-chemical characterization showed that when salinity is not the main limiting factor for irrigation use, groundwater from the quadruple aquifer can be safely used, especially with salt-tolerant crops, modern irrigation techniques, and good drainage systems for reclaimed land. It is recommended not to use the groundwater from the newly reclaimed area for irrigation alone, but to mix it with surface water in a ratio of one groundwater to two or three surface water. Moreover, to reduce the effect of vertical or lateral movement of brackish water from the adjacent aquifer, large-scale over-abstraction of groundwater should be avoided. This study also presents the differences and similarities between the MFUSG (Unstructured Grid version of MODFLOW) and traditional structured versions of MF2005 (MODFLOW 2005) in simulating a three-dimensional multilayer groundwater flow model in QAEND to define a safe future framework for groundwater development. A 390-borehole dataset was used to build a three-dimension stratigraphic model of the Quaternary aquifer. A GIS-based conceptual model is mapping to represent the different boundary conditions such as lakes, rivers, drains, aquifer recharge, and discharge. The conceptual model is exported to the stratigraphic model; therefore, boundary conditions data are automatically arranged in arrays identical with the grid cells. MF2005 and MFUSG are combined with the computer-based program PEST to calibrate groundwater head distribution through the aquifer system. Groundwater levels measured in 1991 are used for the steady-state calibration and are employed then as initial conditions for the transient calibration between 1991 and 2005. The results show that MFUSG provides flexibility in grid design, including the capability to use non-rectangular cell shapes. Also, it can be used with simple grids and nested grids that allow for the solution to be focused on areas of interest. Also, the results show that the MF2005 simulation takes about 20 times longer to complete the run and uses about 6 times more cells number than the MFUSG simulation. A novel model is studied to build relationships between the available geomorphological and hydrogeological data, and the unknown time-dependent recharge rates. This is useful in performing inexpensive sustainable simulation and management of the proposed aquifer. Recharge rates in the year 2005 are calibrated using the observed hydraulic heads. The unstructured grid version of MODFLOW (MFUSG) coupled with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to solve the calibration problem. Then, a multilayer Cascade Forward Artificial Neural Network (CFNN) is trained using the calibrated recharge rates to conclude the required relationships between available data and unknown recharge rates, for any subsequent year. Four different training methods are adopted for CFNN: 1) PSO, 2) Levenberg Marquart (LM), 3) LM in combination with the Bayesian Regularization (BR), and 4) hybrid algorithm between LM - BR and PSO, which is used for the first time in training the CFNN to predict the net recharge rates and is found to be the best one. The trained CFNN is used to provide the groundwater flow model, MFUSG, with necessary recharge rates during the transient simulation of the groundwater between 2005 and 2015. Good matching between simulated and observed hydraulic heads is validating the model in forecasting future recharge rates. Finally, the created simulation optimization model (PSO-MFUSG) is used for controlling waterlogging hazards in the study area. Two long-term solutions were proposed to solve the problem of waterlogging. The first is vertical drainage wells, this system is suitable in low, isolated, and steep lands where there is no outlet for the horizontal drainage network, such as Wadi Tumiliat and Sarabium zone. As for the second scenario, it is to create a subsurface pipe drainage system, and this system is suitable for the East of Bahr El-Baqar area, the North El-Salhyia agricultural project, and the El-Balah depression. In both cases, the optimum material and installation cost is calculated using the PSO-MFUSG optimization model. These two solutions will help to bring down the high-water level and coping with the challenges of water shortage by saving the lost Nile water in the study area.